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well hello

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welcome to the session on astrobiology

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and the future of life evidence analogy

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and prediction

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uh i'm very excited with the group

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people that we have to talk because of

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the number of people we have very strict

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timelines so i'm going to give everyone

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10 minutes if there is a chance for a

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question at the end of a talk

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we'll go ahead and have that question

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but 10 minutes per talk and then we'll

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have an open discussion at the end so i

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hope you'll think a little bit about

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this question of the future

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and how we think about it

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well

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let's go ahead and turn things over to

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hi there can you hear me and see my

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screen

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we can

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good that's good news okay

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all right thank you so i'm setting my

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timer for the fabled 10 minutes and off

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we go so as you can see that is my talk

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title um as an anthropologist i am

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probably expected to use pictures of

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people um but i could not shake the

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desire to use trees um partly playing

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with the idea of what the tree of life

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really looks like um but they're all all

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metaphorically meaningful trees not just

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pretty inspirational ones if uh if you

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want to know more about what they kind

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of stand in for just ask me so yeah my

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my uh contention is that some uh

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anthropological lessons learned the hard

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way

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might uh aid astrobiological thinking um

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when lucas and i first talked about this

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session i just thought it was such a

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fantastic idea you know that question of

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what constitutes good research on the on

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the future of life um and i'm really

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looking forward to hearing other

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people's wisdom on this so i am yeah

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very grateful um to lucas for oops i

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don't want to annotate my slide um for

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suggesting that we do this and also

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congratulations to lucas on his recent

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tenure as the bloomberg chair at the

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library of congress yay

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um and thanks to frank and the

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organizing committees for all that

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they've done um i particularly

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appreciate being able to participate in

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this as a hybrid session i'm really

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grateful for that

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um so here's just the overview of what

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i'm going to try and cover um first i'm

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just going to recap extremely briefly

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some key points from lucas

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regarding persistent ascent narratives

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um which are a really good jumping off

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point for us i'll say a little bit about

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my approach to this topic um i've worked

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there isn't a lot of time here which

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forces me to be very blunt and distilled

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but obviously like i've got a lot of

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stuff on my researchgate and

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academia.edu if you might be interested

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in reading some of my extended papers on

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this um i'll give you some brief

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observations about what anthropologists

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and archaeologists have learned the hard

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way that might be worth knowing about

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ditching millennial narratives

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remembering agency unpacking the unified

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we considering your sources uh being

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careful about collapse and contact in

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particular

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rethinking human animal and human

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technology relationships and also um

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actually being in the present um just a

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note as well that um

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yeah there's no tidy conclusion to this

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one but i do have a question about our

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future habits and obsessions i also um

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just want to plug a session tomorrow

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which includes philosophers social

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scientists and a futurist so you might

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want to come out for that

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um

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yesterday or that you can watch the

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recording there's a couple of key points

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from it that i would like to highlight

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as we begin um i hope that lucas himself

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can circle back to these in the panel

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discussion at the end um so yeah there's

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where you go to see the recording um

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from his full abstract here so he talked

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about the traditional ascent narratives

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um which described a journey in

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spiritual as well as physical space you

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remember the nested spheres um kind of

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medieval notion of the cosmos

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and then how the copernican revolution

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decoupled spiritual and physical

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elevation but he points out that ascent

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narratives remained

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they remained popular as biological

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theories paragraphs of revolution lower

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entire life forms

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um of course darwin's theory of

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evolution disprove those theories and

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and lucas notes that sociologists

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observed concrete harm

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through theories of more and less

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advanced individuals and societies and

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i'll have a little more to say about

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that later um but despite this lucas

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points out many scientists continue to

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promote ascent narratives that predict

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normative social development through

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science radio astronomy and rocketry all

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up to interstellar colonization and he

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points out that such linear narratives

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are inconsistent with modern

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evolutionary theory and should be

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replaced by narratives of

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diversification and local adaptation to

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which i say

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oh man

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i certainly think lewis is right um and

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in his extended argument he's got the

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evolutionary biology theory a theology

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and history i'm just going to try and

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weigh in just a smidgen from the social

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science angle as we consider how to

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think about um the future of life so my

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contribution here um

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can't see who's in the room i know i

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know some of you but probably not all of

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you anyway i'm an anthropologist and an

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archaeologist um with a background in

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archaeological theory um or what we

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think we know about the archaeological

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past and how we think we know it so

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these epistemic questions um which are

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really important when you're dealing

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with you know tough data sets and

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partial recovery and all the things that

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archaeology is deliciously plagued with

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it's really good stuff to think with

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um i also work a lot on scientific and

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popular narratives about humanity's past

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and the philosophy of science so i teach

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archaeology as well as space related

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courses and i've been working around

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astrobiology and study for nearly 20

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years on a variety of themes including

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the evolution of intelligence evolution

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of humans issues at the intersection of

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astrobiology and society including space

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ethics post-detection societal impact

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issues and stuff like that and i've

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organized and participated in quite a

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few apps icon sessions and workshops by

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now including we did the evolution of

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intelligence last time this was in

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atlanta um and the rules of uh

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social sciences and in master biology

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science so if you're interested in any

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of that come find me virtually i'll be

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happy to chat and answer questions

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in relation to seti i just want to say i

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do quite a lot these days on

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post-detection problems not actually

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necessarily because i want to because

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but because somebody needs to

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but i really really emphasize working on

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the human side of that equation not the

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eti side personally i personally feel

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really dubious about the utility of a

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it can be sufficiently right for

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predictions to be useful and i think

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it's more likely for us to be

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detrimentally wrong and in my experience

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in archaeology it's really hard to

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understand a narrative and rewrite a

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story um sometimes you're better off not

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having a theory at all than trying to

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undo one in the face of evidence so

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personally i tend to just hold open that

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alien space and just kind of say look if

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we don't know anything about them if

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indeed they do exist but i do respect

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that other researchers have different

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approaches and i'm not saying that it's

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all useless that's certainly not what

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i'm contending i'm just explaining why i

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focus the way that i do personally

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people expect me to do alien sociology

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but i don't um i love these

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philosophical questions about the best

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ways to think how do we use the data

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that we have from earth to think through

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possibilities for life of all kinds

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elsewhere and how do we do that with

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maximum wisdom this is actually the very

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first topic that grabbed me when i

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attended my first workshop at the seti

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institute in 2003

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i was just stunned by how differently

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people in the city and astrobiology

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community talk about humans compared to

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the way that we do in anthropology so

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over the years i've written a few papers

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on this

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um including social evolution state of

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the field and that one i go into

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collapse in historical trajectories and

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so i mentioned that because it may be of

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some news um to people who are in a

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session if you're looking for something

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that addresses that topic from an

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astrobiostatic kind of perspective

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ten thousand revolutions being

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technological um impossible predictions

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of the unprecedented i think may also be

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specifically relevant to some of what

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we're talking about here today and then

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a couple more the most recent one um how

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humans matter now

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so this kind of spells out the

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relevances of anthropology and

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archaeology for the new study how do we

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best use those data sets

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so in my title

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i suggested

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that some anthropology whoops where am i

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now that's

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what

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that some anthropological lessons

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learned the hard way may uh aid

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astrobiological thinking quick

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definitions here i'm including archaeo

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archaeology paleo anthropology

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biological and cultural anthropo astro

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bio i'm thinking big picture the hard

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way i mean really hard um

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anthropologists and archaeologists are

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frequently heart sick um partly because

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of the destruction of who and what we

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study and hold deer

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um but also partly because of the weight

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of past mistakes in our settler sciences

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astrobiology is positively restful by

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comparison

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though that will change of course when

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humans start seriously messing up other

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planets

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but on the bright side we do have this

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ton of data a long disciplinary history

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subjects who talk back to us and so

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we've become quite good at some things

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recently precisely because we were so

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bad at them before um

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so we're actively remaking the ways that

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we look at and understand and talk about

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the history of human beings on this

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planet we're really really kind of

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living that hard work

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in in our fields

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so for the final couple of minutes here

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just very very quick suggestions

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first

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if you're using human historical and

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archaeological record

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for raw material examples think through

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your ethics carefully

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um are you sure you're not

283
00:09:58,310 --> 00:09:56,720
misrepresenting somebody else's past um

284
00:10:00,150 --> 00:09:58,320
it's actually really hard to be sure

285
00:10:02,230 --> 00:10:00,160
about that and if you're using outdated

286
00:10:03,829 --> 00:10:02,240
sources you can better believe that

287
00:10:04,949 --> 00:10:03,839
they're not the best of our current

288
00:10:06,790 --> 00:10:04,959
knowledge

289
00:10:09,430 --> 00:10:06,800
remember that the people of the past had

290
00:10:11,030 --> 00:10:09,440
agency and free will and so do we easy

291
00:10:14,790 --> 00:10:11,040
to allied that

292
00:10:17,590 --> 00:10:14,800
avoid the fiction of the unified we

293
00:10:20,150 --> 00:10:17,600
obviously humans

294
00:10:22,470 --> 00:10:20,160
and biological species their cultures

295
00:10:25,030 --> 00:10:22,480
political situations power and quality

296
00:10:25,630 --> 00:10:25,040
of life vary enormously it matters when

297
00:10:27,670 --> 00:10:25,640
you're talking about the

298
00:10:30,150 --> 00:10:27,680
anti-anthropocene and it matters for

299
00:10:32,230 --> 00:10:30,160
future telling in general this book will

300
00:10:34,150 --> 00:10:32,240
rock your world if you haven't read it

301
00:10:35,670 --> 00:10:34,160
amplifying what lucas just said about

302
00:10:37,110 --> 00:10:35,680
his scent narratives the problem with

303
00:10:38,870 --> 00:10:37,120
them from the social perspective is not

304
00:10:41,030 --> 00:10:38,880
just the undesirable corollaries it's

305
00:10:43,030 --> 00:10:41,040
the accuracy

306
00:10:44,949 --> 00:10:43,040
humanities history shows a festival of

307
00:10:46,310 --> 00:10:44,959
possibilities and the millennial story

308
00:10:48,389 --> 00:10:46,320
about hunter-gatherers etc that we've

309
00:10:50,550 --> 00:10:48,399
been told it's more deeply political and

310
00:10:53,190 --> 00:10:50,560
eurocentric than most of us know

311
00:10:54,949 --> 00:10:53,200
fantastic book highly recommend it so

312
00:10:56,870 --> 00:10:54,959
use the historical record to explore the

313
00:11:00,310 --> 00:10:56,880
range of possibilities instead and

314
00:11:03,509 --> 00:11:00,320
realize we've lost track of many of them

315
00:11:05,590 --> 00:11:03,519
you're gonna use human history new work

316
00:11:07,430 --> 00:11:05,600
be skeptical of popular synthesis which

317
00:11:10,069 --> 00:11:07,440
are written by authors working beyond

318
00:11:12,150 --> 00:11:10,079
your practical training time out of time

319
00:11:14,470 --> 00:11:12,160
i know that's terrible uh one more

320
00:11:16,230 --> 00:11:14,480
minute so look for wait for read the

321
00:11:17,829 --> 00:11:16,240
critiques by archaeologists medievalists

322
00:11:19,670 --> 00:11:17,839
indigenous scholars gender researchers

323
00:11:21,350 --> 00:11:19,680
etc reach out to your colleagues fellow

324
00:11:23,030 --> 00:11:21,360
students in those fields ask questions

325
00:11:25,030 --> 00:11:23,040
collaborate it's the only way to be on

326
00:11:25,990 --> 00:11:25,040
top of the changing best of our

327
00:11:27,750 --> 00:11:26,000
knowledge

328
00:11:29,190 --> 00:11:27,760
if you must talk about collapse read the

329
00:11:30,230 --> 00:11:29,200
recent archaeological literature i can

330
00:11:32,230 --> 00:11:30,240
promise you you won't think about

331
00:11:34,710 --> 00:11:32,240
collapse the same way anymore please i

332
00:11:36,630 --> 00:11:34,720
beg you release your island alone

333
00:11:37,949 --> 00:11:36,640
question assumptions about your

334
00:11:41,509 --> 00:11:37,959
long-lived

335
00:11:44,310 --> 00:11:41,519
technological et civilizations which

336
00:11:46,150 --> 00:11:44,320
they exist and their degree of pacifism

337
00:11:47,829 --> 00:11:46,160
these assumptions have a lot of

338
00:11:49,350 --> 00:11:47,839
implications they rest on a really

339
00:11:50,790 --> 00:11:49,360
wobbly foundation

340
00:11:52,629 --> 00:11:50,800
if you must talk about human alien

341
00:11:55,350 --> 00:11:52,639
contact be wary of the analogy of the

342
00:11:57,110 --> 00:11:55,360
invasions of the new world

343
00:11:58,550 --> 00:11:57,120
wants to stay on that in no time when

344
00:12:00,310 --> 00:11:58,560
thinking about encountering life on

345
00:12:01,829 --> 00:12:00,320
other worlds be realistic about humans

346
00:12:03,269 --> 00:12:01,839
trap record with other species in

347
00:12:05,509 --> 00:12:03,279
earth's environments

348
00:12:07,190 --> 00:12:05,519
remember human technology relationships

349
00:12:09,350 --> 00:12:07,200
are bogglingly complex often

350
00:12:11,590 --> 00:12:09,360
unpredictable when you just don't know

351
00:12:12,949 --> 00:12:11,600
something consider holding that space

352
00:12:14,870 --> 00:12:12,959
open instead of filling it with

353
00:12:17,590 --> 00:12:14,880
projections unless there's a really good

354
00:12:19,910 --> 00:12:17,600
reason to fill it

355
00:12:21,509 --> 00:12:19,920
finally astrobiology is future oriented

356
00:12:22,949 --> 00:12:21,519
in terms of the discoveries

357
00:12:24,629 --> 00:12:22,959
astrobiologists hope to make the

358
00:12:25,829 --> 00:12:24,639
possible results and the research

359
00:12:28,230 --> 00:12:25,839
timelines

360
00:12:30,710 --> 00:12:28,240
and astrobiological imagination propels

361
00:12:33,190 --> 00:12:30,720
us to other worlds other times many

362
00:12:35,430 --> 00:12:33,200
maybes but there are days when we should

363
00:12:37,110 --> 00:12:35,440
be more present in the hearing now and i

364
00:12:44,050 --> 00:12:37,120
wonder sometimes

365
00:12:44,060 --> 00:12:49,829
[Applause]

366
00:12:55,190 --> 00:12:51,190
thank you catherine that was awesome

367
00:12:59,350 --> 00:12:57,110
hey everybody thank you

368
00:13:02,949 --> 00:12:59,360
that was wonderful i wish i i'll talk to

369
00:13:05,350 --> 00:13:02,959
you later about writing those down

370
00:13:06,389 --> 00:13:05,360
and i also know the the problems of

371
00:13:09,910 --> 00:13:06,399
having a

372
00:13:11,430 --> 00:13:09,920
uh research question thrust upon you so

373
00:13:13,590 --> 00:13:11,440
this is the one that has been thrust

374
00:13:15,910 --> 00:13:13,600
upon me the the question about how we

375
00:13:17,990 --> 00:13:15,920
can know anything about life as we do

376
00:13:19,829 --> 00:13:18,000
not yet know it it's gonna i'm gonna

377
00:13:21,910 --> 00:13:19,839
frame it in

378
00:13:23,430 --> 00:13:21,920
as the new n equals one problem but to

379
00:13:25,509 --> 00:13:23,440
do that i need to remind you of what the

380
00:13:27,110 --> 00:13:25,519
old n equals one problem is and i i

381
00:13:29,030 --> 00:13:27,120
believe you will recognize it when you

382
00:13:31,030 --> 00:13:29,040
see it it is

383
00:13:32,870 --> 00:13:31,040
uh given our single sample size we are

384
00:13:34,870 --> 00:13:32,880
not justified in concluding whether

385
00:13:37,269 --> 00:13:34,880
features of life on earth hold among

386
00:13:38,629 --> 00:13:37,279
other instances of life in the universe

387
00:13:39,670 --> 00:13:38,639
this has uh

388
00:13:42,389 --> 00:13:39,680
been

389
00:13:44,230 --> 00:13:42,399
said multiple times uh most cleanly by

390
00:13:46,230 --> 00:13:44,240
carol cleland and uh

391
00:13:48,470 --> 00:13:46,240
and we'll talk about that now

392
00:13:50,870 --> 00:13:48,480
essentially it's uh

393
00:13:53,430 --> 00:13:50,880
life on earth all shares common ancestry

394
00:13:57,110 --> 00:13:53,440
and any single individual

395
00:13:59,350 --> 00:13:57,120
does not cleanly represent their um

396
00:14:01,430 --> 00:13:59,360
their population so if you were asked

397
00:14:04,710 --> 00:14:01,440
for example to figure out what mammals

398
00:14:07,350 --> 00:14:04,720
were like based on just a single sample

399
00:14:10,069 --> 00:14:07,360
that is a zebra you might not capture

400
00:14:12,230 --> 00:14:10,079
the breath the diversity the size the

401
00:14:13,350 --> 00:14:12,240
scale the the

402
00:14:15,910 --> 00:14:13,360
digestion

403
00:14:19,430 --> 00:14:15,920
any of the features that actually

404
00:14:21,110 --> 00:14:19,440
make up make mammals special

405
00:14:23,430 --> 00:14:21,120
this is carol's example and i think it's

406
00:14:26,629 --> 00:14:23,440
a useful one so you might think that

407
00:14:28,470 --> 00:14:26,639
stripes and hooves are important and you

408
00:14:30,629 --> 00:14:28,480
might be wrong about those but you'd be

409
00:14:32,470 --> 00:14:30,639
right about multicellularity you might

410
00:14:34,550 --> 00:14:32,480
not pick up on the fact that mammals

411
00:14:36,790 --> 00:14:34,560
give live birth and have mammary glands

412
00:14:40,550 --> 00:14:36,800
especially if you have a single

413
00:14:41,670 --> 00:14:40,560
zebra to to draw that inference from

414
00:14:45,430 --> 00:14:41,680
so

415
00:14:47,430 --> 00:14:45,440
i i've heard several people say this

416
00:14:49,590 --> 00:14:47,440
most cleanly

417
00:14:51,269 --> 00:14:49,600
carol said this a little while sorry i

418
00:14:52,389 --> 00:14:51,279
have to go back

419
00:14:54,629 --> 00:14:52,399
we know life on earth is

420
00:14:56,550 --> 00:14:54,639
non-representative so this is an image

421
00:14:58,629 --> 00:14:56,560
of poly extremophile

422
00:15:01,829 --> 00:14:58,639
space um

423
00:15:04,790 --> 00:15:01,839
that is the the pressures the depths uh

424
00:15:05,829 --> 00:15:04,800
oh the timing of these is affecting me

425
00:15:07,590 --> 00:15:05,839
um

426
00:15:09,590 --> 00:15:07,600
of life as we as we know it here on

427
00:15:10,310 --> 00:15:09,600
earth i don't know what i expected to

428
00:15:14,629 --> 00:15:10,320
see

429
00:15:18,710 --> 00:15:14,639
so

430
00:15:20,629 --> 00:15:18,720
the n equals one problem

431
00:15:22,790 --> 00:15:20,639
namely that for any sample that you care

432
00:15:24,230 --> 00:15:22,800
about there's going to be one category

433
00:15:26,310 --> 00:15:24,240
that it belongs to that's going to be

434
00:15:27,990 --> 00:15:26,320
salient and important in the case of

435
00:15:30,710 --> 00:15:28,000
zebras like

436
00:15:33,590 --> 00:15:30,720
it would be mammals in the case of life

437
00:15:36,550 --> 00:15:33,600
it would be life in general i argued

438
00:15:38,550 --> 00:15:36,560
against that in print in 2014

439
00:15:41,189 --> 00:15:38,560
the next two that we would recognize new

440
00:15:43,990 --> 00:15:41,199
cases we saw them as belonging to the

441
00:15:45,430 --> 00:15:44,000
same kind that we would recognize life

442
00:15:46,710 --> 00:15:45,440
when we saw it

443
00:15:48,710 --> 00:15:46,720
and that

444
00:15:50,150 --> 00:15:48,720
the kind life is held fixed and we just

445
00:15:52,150 --> 00:15:50,160
need to figure out what properties make

446
00:15:53,590 --> 00:15:52,160
it up those are the questions that i'm

447
00:15:58,310 --> 00:15:53,600
gonna or those are the assumptions that

448
00:16:03,189 --> 00:16:01,030
in the new n equals one problem

449
00:16:05,590 --> 00:16:03,199
which i'm going to formulate like this

450
00:16:07,990 --> 00:16:05,600
life on earth belongs to and provides

451
00:16:10,150 --> 00:16:08,000
equivalent evidence for an indefinite

452
00:16:12,069 --> 00:16:10,160
number of broader categories none of

453
00:16:15,269 --> 00:16:12,079
which are non-controversially equivalent

454
00:16:17,910 --> 00:16:15,279
to the life category itself

455
00:16:20,550 --> 00:16:17,920
so take life on earth

456
00:16:22,870 --> 00:16:20,560
you might be impressed by the lifelike

457
00:16:24,470 --> 00:16:22,880
behavior that it exhibits you might be

458
00:16:26,470 --> 00:16:24,480
think that the the cause for that is

459
00:16:28,629 --> 00:16:26,480
that it isn't evolving by a process of

460
00:16:30,069 --> 00:16:28,639
evolution by natural selection you might

461
00:16:31,829 --> 00:16:30,079
think that there's some sort of complex

462
00:16:35,030 --> 00:16:31,839
information that it is capturing that we

463
00:16:36,550 --> 00:16:35,040
can uh that that's the the heart of life

464
00:16:39,430 --> 00:16:36,560
you might think that there's some sort

465
00:16:41,350 --> 00:16:39,440
of metabolism going on there's or any of

466
00:16:43,990 --> 00:16:41,360
the other categories we've we've heard

467
00:16:46,710 --> 00:16:44,000
uh time and again from elves everywhere

468
00:16:49,269 --> 00:16:46,720
namely um there's these categories that

469
00:16:51,509 --> 00:16:49,279
we think life on earth

470
00:16:53,829 --> 00:16:51,519
belongs to and and some people say oh

471
00:16:55,430 --> 00:16:53,839
that's just what is what life is and

472
00:16:57,509 --> 00:16:55,440
then we have this debate back and forth

473
00:16:59,350 --> 00:16:57,519
and you know you debate whether mules

474
00:17:01,509 --> 00:16:59,360
can reproduce and whether fire

475
00:17:03,590 --> 00:17:01,519
metabolizes you have this this back and

476
00:17:05,110 --> 00:17:03,600
forth where people uh take their

477
00:17:08,390 --> 00:17:05,120
preferred

478
00:17:09,270 --> 00:17:08,400
view and and argue about it

479
00:17:10,309 --> 00:17:09,280
um

480
00:17:13,270 --> 00:17:10,319
and so

481
00:17:15,510 --> 00:17:13,280
i think going back to the the

482
00:17:18,069 --> 00:17:15,520
formulation um

483
00:17:20,150 --> 00:17:18,079
when we say we know life on earth is

484
00:17:22,309 --> 00:17:20,160
non-representative i mean the question

485
00:17:23,909 --> 00:17:22,319
to me immediately is is of what right

486
00:17:25,909 --> 00:17:23,919
maybe it's very representative of

487
00:17:28,309 --> 00:17:25,919
metabolizing systems but it's not

488
00:17:29,830 --> 00:17:28,319
representative of evolving systems or

489
00:17:31,270 --> 00:17:29,840
maybe it's very representative of

490
00:17:33,510 --> 00:17:31,280
lifelike behavior but it's not

491
00:17:35,909 --> 00:17:33,520
representative of complex information as

492
00:17:37,270 --> 00:17:35,919
we would expect to see it elsewhere in

493
00:17:39,510 --> 00:17:37,280
the universe

494
00:17:42,070 --> 00:17:39,520
and that i think is the heart of this

495
00:17:44,310 --> 00:17:42,080
um we had this old problem where we had

496
00:17:45,750 --> 00:17:44,320
this k this this example of life here on

497
00:17:48,710 --> 00:17:45,760
earth and we thought we would go and

498
00:17:50,070 --> 00:17:48,720
find the the aliens the martians

499
00:17:51,830 --> 00:17:50,080
and they would we'd know what they would

500
00:17:54,070 --> 00:17:51,840
look like and they would question our

501
00:17:57,430 --> 00:17:54,080
assumptions of course sorry the timings

502
00:17:59,430 --> 00:17:57,440
are going to be killing me

503
00:18:01,750 --> 00:17:59,440
but

504
00:18:03,590 --> 00:18:01,760
the new problem is we know that it has

505
00:18:05,029 --> 00:18:03,600
properties and these properties are

506
00:18:05,830 --> 00:18:05,039
essential

507
00:18:07,909 --> 00:18:05,840
to

508
00:18:09,190 --> 00:18:07,919
um any number of categories but the

509
00:18:11,350 --> 00:18:09,200
question is

510
00:18:12,789 --> 00:18:11,360
which category is the one that we care

511
00:18:14,789 --> 00:18:12,799
about

512
00:18:17,110 --> 00:18:14,799
so to convince you of this i don't think

513
00:18:18,150 --> 00:18:17,120
i have yet but to convince you let's say

514
00:18:22,070 --> 00:18:18,160
um

515
00:18:24,310 --> 00:18:22,080
we could find any kind of data that we

516
00:18:26,390 --> 00:18:24,320
could find and we can break it down this

517
00:18:28,549 --> 00:18:26,400
way data where very few people agree

518
00:18:30,950 --> 00:18:28,559
which i think has happened numerous

519
00:18:32,870 --> 00:18:30,960
times before these tend to be dismissed

520
00:18:35,029 --> 00:18:32,880
right these um there's a couple of

521
00:18:37,430 --> 00:18:35,039
people like gil levin think thinking

522
00:18:39,510 --> 00:18:37,440
that we've discovered life on mars back

523
00:18:41,750 --> 00:18:39,520
in the 70s

524
00:18:45,029 --> 00:18:41,760
and the scientific community is a

525
00:18:47,669 --> 00:18:45,039
community we can ostracize people

526
00:18:49,909 --> 00:18:47,679
and so i think that's sometimes when we

527
00:18:51,830 --> 00:18:49,919
have cases where only very few people

528
00:18:53,430 --> 00:18:51,840
agree we find it easier just to not talk

529
00:18:54,710 --> 00:18:53,440
about some of those

530
00:18:55,909 --> 00:18:54,720
examples

531
00:18:57,830 --> 00:18:55,919
the questions that i find most

532
00:19:00,150 --> 00:18:57,840
interesting are when some experts agree

533
00:19:02,950 --> 00:19:00,160
and you have these factions forming

534
00:19:05,029 --> 00:19:02,960
where um you find some muck and people

535
00:19:07,190 --> 00:19:05,039
say this is a this is life and other

536
00:19:10,070 --> 00:19:07,200
people say that's not life

537
00:19:12,230 --> 00:19:10,080
if you go to any of the artificial life

538
00:19:13,830 --> 00:19:12,240
symposium or origins of life conferences

539
00:19:16,630 --> 00:19:13,840
you'll see this this happen again and

540
00:19:18,950 --> 00:19:16,640
again where well-meaning scientists ask

541
00:19:21,270 --> 00:19:18,960
the question yeah but is it life

542
00:19:22,470 --> 00:19:21,280
this is an open question argument when

543
00:19:26,630 --> 00:19:22,480
somebody says

544
00:19:28,390 --> 00:19:26,640
a is b and somebody can reasonably say

545
00:19:29,750 --> 00:19:28,400
but is a b

546
00:19:33,830 --> 00:19:29,760
that means that there's something not

547
00:19:35,510 --> 00:19:33,840
fully captured by that equivalence so

548
00:19:37,430 --> 00:19:35,520
every time

549
00:19:39,430 --> 00:19:37,440
people go with their their preferred

550
00:19:41,590 --> 00:19:39,440
view and they say oh that's just what

551
00:19:42,470 --> 00:19:41,600
life is and other people say well it but

552
00:19:43,909 --> 00:19:42,480
is it

553
00:19:45,669 --> 00:19:43,919
that shows that there's these factions

554
00:19:46,950 --> 00:19:45,679
that can easily form

555
00:19:48,390 --> 00:19:46,960
the third case is the case that

556
00:19:50,070 --> 00:19:48,400
everybody would love right the case

557
00:19:52,789 --> 00:19:50,080
where you just find an alien that

558
00:19:54,710 --> 00:19:52,799
happens to look exactly like humans

559
00:19:56,390 --> 00:19:54,720
but that actually gives us too little

560
00:19:59,350 --> 00:19:56,400
information it doesn't help us decide

561
00:20:00,310 --> 00:19:59,360
the problem cases later on

562
00:20:03,110 --> 00:20:00,320
um

563
00:20:05,750 --> 00:20:03,120
ideally ideally that's what we find

564
00:20:07,430 --> 00:20:05,760
every time we will always it'll just

565
00:20:09,909 --> 00:20:07,440
bunk us over the head we'll see rabbits

566
00:20:12,230 --> 00:20:09,919
on mars or under the

567
00:20:14,549 --> 00:20:12,240
water and in europa that would be that'd

568
00:20:16,070 --> 00:20:14,559
be problematic um

569
00:20:18,390 --> 00:20:16,080
but i don't think that that's what we

570
00:20:19,750 --> 00:20:18,400
should expect instead i think ways we

571
00:20:22,230 --> 00:20:19,760
can avoid this

572
00:20:25,750 --> 00:20:22,240
is by either voting or just everybody

573
00:20:27,830 --> 00:20:25,760
that we disagree with dying mysteriously

574
00:20:29,590 --> 00:20:27,840
so let's focus on the first one the hope

575
00:20:31,669 --> 00:20:29,600
is that life is going to be something

576
00:20:34,549 --> 00:20:31,679
like chemistry biology is going to be

577
00:20:36,789 --> 00:20:34,559
like chemistry the ancients knew what

578
00:20:40,310 --> 00:20:36,799
the what water was they knew what gold

579
00:20:43,669 --> 00:20:40,320
was um and then came modern atomic

580
00:20:46,470 --> 00:20:43,679
theory and we supplanted this concept of

581
00:20:49,669 --> 00:20:46,480
gold this yellow malleable uh

582
00:20:51,990 --> 00:20:49,679
substance with an atomic number and we

583
00:20:54,070 --> 00:20:52,000
said this explains all of the things

584
00:20:56,470 --> 00:20:54,080
that are interesting about the things

585
00:20:59,350 --> 00:20:56,480
that the ancients were

586
00:21:03,750 --> 00:20:59,360
were calling gold so

587
00:21:04,870 --> 00:21:03,760
we said no no gold just is atomic gold

588
00:21:06,470 --> 00:21:04,880
although i've seen gold a couple of

589
00:21:09,190 --> 00:21:06,480
times in my life i've never counted the

590
00:21:10,390 --> 00:21:09,200
number of protons in a sample right so

591
00:21:12,310 --> 00:21:10,400
so there's a sense in which it's

592
00:21:14,870 --> 00:21:12,320
actually not very useful

593
00:21:17,190 --> 00:21:14,880
and there's another sense in which

594
00:21:19,510 --> 00:21:17,200
there was a choice that chemistry made

595
00:21:21,430 --> 00:21:19,520
and that choice you can see it in the

596
00:21:24,710 --> 00:21:21,440
periodic table the periodic table is

597
00:21:26,390 --> 00:21:24,720
this masterwork this ideal if a science

598
00:21:28,470 --> 00:21:26,400
could have something like the periodic

599
00:21:32,070 --> 00:21:28,480
table

600
00:21:33,669 --> 00:21:32,080
then then it divides reality we think in

601
00:21:36,230 --> 00:21:33,679
one of the best ways

602
00:21:37,909 --> 00:21:36,240
namely by number of protons

603
00:21:41,110 --> 00:21:37,919
but you could have divided it in terms

604
00:21:43,750 --> 00:21:41,120
of isotopes or ions or any number of

605
00:21:45,590 --> 00:21:43,760
other things you could have uh

606
00:21:47,190 --> 00:21:45,600
divided it in terms of the pressures

607
00:21:50,149 --> 00:21:47,200
that you would expect the elements to

608
00:21:53,590 --> 00:21:50,159
see in the behaviors they would exhibit

609
00:21:55,990 --> 00:21:53,600
elements are posits essences are posits

610
00:21:59,270 --> 00:21:56,000
they're theoretical posits and in

611
00:22:02,549 --> 00:21:59,280
chemistry we convinced the public that

612
00:22:04,789 --> 00:22:02,559
that the chemical elements just were

613
00:22:06,789 --> 00:22:04,799
the elements we cared about and we i

614
00:22:09,510 --> 00:22:06,799
don't expect that we will see that in

615
00:22:11,669 --> 00:22:09,520
biology at all because we already have

616
00:22:13,990 --> 00:22:11,679
the problem cases the cases of rna

617
00:22:16,470 --> 00:22:14,000
worlds of viruses of prions

618
00:22:18,950 --> 00:22:16,480
we already know that the that factions

619
00:22:21,669 --> 00:22:18,960
form we already know that that we're not

620
00:22:23,590 --> 00:22:21,679
going to find the neat case that their

621
00:22:25,190 --> 00:22:23,600
stable property cluster that everybody

622
00:22:28,870 --> 00:22:25,200
will be happy with

623
00:22:30,310 --> 00:22:28,880
so let me just wrap up very quickly

624
00:22:33,270 --> 00:22:30,320
there are an indefinite number of

625
00:22:34,710 --> 00:22:33,280
answers over what the category life is

626
00:22:36,390 --> 00:22:34,720
any evidence we

627
00:22:37,830 --> 00:22:36,400
speaks to an indefinite number of

628
00:22:40,310 --> 00:22:37,840
categories

629
00:22:54,950 --> 00:22:40,320
what is life is a decision it is not a

630
00:23:14,390 --> 00:22:57,830
our next discussion will be david diemer

631
00:23:22,070 --> 00:23:18,630
in 1993 jim casting and his co-authors

632
00:23:23,830 --> 00:23:22,080
came up with the concept of habitability

633
00:23:25,830 --> 00:23:23,840
and the habitable zone

634
00:23:27,830 --> 00:23:25,840
and that's kind of those words have

635
00:23:30,070 --> 00:23:27,840
grown into our language and

636
00:23:31,350 --> 00:23:30,080
very commonly used because they're

637
00:23:33,510 --> 00:23:31,360
useful

638
00:23:37,430 --> 00:23:33,520
however habitability does not

639
00:23:39,990 --> 00:23:37,440
necessarily include the origin of life

640
00:23:43,350 --> 00:23:40,000
and my co-authors and i have

641
00:23:46,390 --> 00:23:43,360
discovered that a word is missing and

642
00:23:48,630 --> 00:23:46,400
the word that we're going to try to use

643
00:23:51,830 --> 00:23:48,640
among ourselves and maybe other people

644
00:23:56,549 --> 00:23:51,840
will find it useful is er ability

645
00:23:59,669 --> 00:23:56,559
now er ability has the combining term er

646
00:24:04,149 --> 00:23:59,679
as original earliest primitive

647
00:24:07,269 --> 00:24:04,159
and eris hecko way back in 1860 use that

648
00:24:10,710 --> 00:24:07,279
same combining term uh to describe

649
00:24:12,549 --> 00:24:10,720
earthline or primordial slime

650
00:24:14,630 --> 00:24:12,559
so if you look over at the image on the

651
00:24:17,909 --> 00:24:14,640
right hand side of the screen here's a

652
00:24:19,590 --> 00:24:17,919
primitive planet there's no life there

653
00:24:21,909 --> 00:24:19,600
is it habitable

654
00:24:24,310 --> 00:24:21,919
probably it's got liquid water there

655
00:24:26,549 --> 00:24:24,320
depending on how long that liquid water

656
00:24:29,350 --> 00:24:26,559
lasts on the planet uh we would call

657
00:24:33,669 --> 00:24:29,360
that a habitable planet but can life

658
00:24:35,990 --> 00:24:33,679
begin on this planet that involves a

659
00:24:39,590 --> 00:24:36,000
large number of other

660
00:24:42,230 --> 00:24:39,600
sorts of um considerations

661
00:24:43,430 --> 00:24:42,240
so let me just tell you a bit about her

662
00:24:46,789 --> 00:24:43,440
ability

663
00:24:48,950 --> 00:24:46,799
uh it has to do with conditions that

664
00:24:51,830 --> 00:24:48,960
allow life to begin

665
00:24:54,789 --> 00:24:51,840
so down below you see some um

666
00:24:56,789 --> 00:24:54,799
planets so we these are exoplanets

667
00:24:59,830 --> 00:24:56,799
they're artists representations of

668
00:25:02,230 --> 00:24:59,840
course we can't really see them this way

669
00:25:06,070 --> 00:25:02,240
but these are in the habitable zone

670
00:25:09,190 --> 00:25:06,080
around their stars so if water was there

671
00:25:11,350 --> 00:25:09,200
it would probably be liquid water

672
00:25:12,950 --> 00:25:11,360
could life begin

673
00:25:16,070 --> 00:25:12,960
on such planets

674
00:25:18,710 --> 00:25:16,080
not unless there are conditions that

675
00:25:20,630 --> 00:25:18,720
allow them to be herbal

676
00:25:22,630 --> 00:25:20,640
so let me illustrate that with this

677
00:25:25,029 --> 00:25:22,640
little simple diagram

678
00:25:28,789 --> 00:25:25,039
on the left you see a flask with a

679
00:25:32,470 --> 00:25:28,799
bacterial culture medium in it if i add

680
00:25:34,549 --> 00:25:32,480
one bacterial cell a live e coli cell

681
00:25:35,590 --> 00:25:34,559
for instance and come back two days

682
00:25:37,669 --> 00:25:35,600
later

683
00:25:40,470 --> 00:25:37,679
it is loaded with

684
00:25:43,269 --> 00:25:40,480
billions if not trillions of new cells

685
00:25:46,950 --> 00:25:43,279
so certainly there's no doubt that that

686
00:25:50,070 --> 00:25:46,960
is a habitable medium but if we just let

687
00:25:53,510 --> 00:25:50,080
it set there year after year

688
00:25:56,310 --> 00:25:53,520
louis pasteur showed us long ago that it

689
00:25:59,190 --> 00:25:56,320
was no life could begin under these

690
00:26:02,710 --> 00:25:59,200
conditions we would say that that is an

691
00:26:05,750 --> 00:26:02,720
inurable solution just as certain kinds

692
00:26:08,470 --> 00:26:05,760
of planetary conditions would not be

693
00:26:10,549 --> 00:26:08,480
sufficient for the emergence of life

694
00:26:13,830 --> 00:26:10,559
so what we're doing now is to try to

695
00:26:16,710 --> 00:26:13,840
sort this out and see what we can

696
00:26:19,510 --> 00:26:16,720
put together as a way to

697
00:26:22,149 --> 00:26:19,520
define this word by the kinds of

698
00:26:24,870 --> 00:26:22,159
conditions that are going to be required

699
00:26:26,870 --> 00:26:24,880
for life to emerge so let's just take

700
00:26:28,549 --> 00:26:26,880
some dry scent

701
00:26:30,230 --> 00:26:28,559
i think everybody will agree that that's

702
00:26:32,630 --> 00:26:30,240
inurable

703
00:26:35,110 --> 00:26:32,640
life is not going to begin in dry sand

704
00:26:37,750 --> 00:26:35,120
now let's add some water to the dry sand

705
00:26:40,149 --> 00:26:37,760
suddenly it becomes habitable because

706
00:26:41,909 --> 00:26:40,159
there are certain microorganisms

707
00:26:44,070 --> 00:26:41,919
that can make do

708
00:26:46,070 --> 00:26:44,080
just with light as an energy source as

709
00:26:48,549 --> 00:26:46,080
long as some minerals and certain

710
00:26:51,430 --> 00:26:48,559
nutrients are available but certainly

711
00:26:54,149 --> 00:26:51,440
would not expect life to begin in wet

712
00:26:56,310 --> 00:26:54,159
sand let's add a mixture of organic

713
00:26:58,710 --> 00:26:56,320
compounds such as we might extract from

714
00:27:02,070 --> 00:26:58,720
a carbonaceous meteorite well this is

715
00:27:05,269 --> 00:27:02,080
getting more complex but if the organic

716
00:27:07,909 --> 00:27:05,279
compounds are chemical equilibrium

717
00:27:10,390 --> 00:27:07,919
nothing would happen no matter how long

718
00:27:13,350 --> 00:27:10,400
we waited so we have to add something

719
00:27:16,310 --> 00:27:13,360
else and of course you guessed it we

720
00:27:19,510 --> 00:27:16,320
must add energy to move those organic

721
00:27:22,389 --> 00:27:19,520
compounds away from equilibrium

722
00:27:25,350 --> 00:27:22,399
now something can happen but it has to

723
00:27:27,909 --> 00:27:25,360
be a relatively specific reaction that

724
00:27:30,950 --> 00:27:27,919
happens if we're on the way to life as

725
00:27:32,830 --> 00:27:30,960
we know it and that is the energy source

726
00:27:35,029 --> 00:27:32,840
must be used to drive

727
00:27:37,990 --> 00:27:35,039
polymerization of some of those

728
00:27:39,909 --> 00:27:38,000
compounds that can be monomers this

729
00:27:42,230 --> 00:27:39,919
would be amino acids

730
00:27:43,990 --> 00:27:42,240
and they we know that those are in the

731
00:27:46,470 --> 00:27:44,000
merchants and meteorite for instance so

732
00:27:49,430 --> 00:27:46,480
they would very likely be available on

733
00:27:53,669 --> 00:27:49,440
the early earth we also know that the

734
00:27:55,269 --> 00:27:53,679
bases nucleobases of dna and rna

735
00:27:56,789 --> 00:27:55,279
some of them at least are in the

736
00:27:59,350 --> 00:27:56,799
merchants of meteorite and other

737
00:28:02,389 --> 00:27:59,360
meteorites so it's likely that there

738
00:28:06,590 --> 00:28:02,399
might be compounds able to polymerize

739
00:28:09,909 --> 00:28:06,600
into peptides short peptides and

740
00:28:11,590 --> 00:28:09,919
oligonucleotides short strands of dna or

741
00:28:14,470 --> 00:28:11,600
rna

742
00:28:16,950 --> 00:28:14,480
then there's got to be one more step and

743
00:28:19,430 --> 00:28:16,960
that is that if we're going to have

744
00:28:23,110 --> 00:28:19,440
cellular life begin there has to be a

745
00:28:25,190 --> 00:28:23,120
way to encapsulate it uh in lipid

746
00:28:27,510 --> 00:28:25,200
boundaries such as what we call

747
00:28:30,070 --> 00:28:27,520
liposomes or lipid vesicles

748
00:28:32,789 --> 00:28:30,080
furthermore you've got to remember that

749
00:28:34,149 --> 00:28:32,799
if you have a milligram of lipid and

750
00:28:38,710 --> 00:28:34,159
turn it into

751
00:28:41,110 --> 00:28:38,720
small lipid vesicles we have populations

752
00:28:42,630 --> 00:28:41,120
of what we call protocells that have

753
00:28:44,389 --> 00:28:42,640
encapsulated

754
00:28:46,870 --> 00:28:44,399
some of the polymers

755
00:28:49,029 --> 00:28:46,880
every protocell is different at this

756
00:28:52,310 --> 00:28:49,039
point from all the rest because there's

757
00:28:54,630 --> 00:28:52,320
been nothing directing uh the kinds of

758
00:28:57,430 --> 00:28:54,640
polymers that they would encapsulate or

759
00:29:00,230 --> 00:28:57,440
the sizes of the protocells so something

760
00:29:05,110 --> 00:29:00,240
else has to happen and that is we have

761
00:29:07,669 --> 00:29:05,120
to add selection there must be

762
00:29:09,269 --> 00:29:07,679
things happening in the environment that

763
00:29:12,710 --> 00:29:09,279
will select

764
00:29:15,510 --> 00:29:12,720
more robust protocells or protocells

765
00:29:17,990 --> 00:29:15,520
with catalytic activity for example or

766
00:29:19,909 --> 00:29:18,000
pigments that can pick up light energy

767
00:29:23,510 --> 00:29:19,919
and do something with it

768
00:29:25,830 --> 00:29:23,520
so selection can begin in populations of

769
00:29:28,710 --> 00:29:25,840
these protocells and then we would have

770
00:29:32,070 --> 00:29:28,720
the first steps of evolution at this

771
00:29:35,430 --> 00:29:32,080
point if these were on a habitable

772
00:29:37,669 --> 00:29:35,440
planet i would say that the planet also

773
00:29:38,870 --> 00:29:37,679
has the conditions required for her

774
00:29:41,430 --> 00:29:38,880
ability

775
00:29:44,389 --> 00:29:41,440
well there's pretty broadly based uh

776
00:29:47,430 --> 00:29:44,399
sorts of things let's go to a little bit

777
00:29:52,149 --> 00:29:47,440
more specific considerations let's think

778
00:29:53,269 --> 00:29:52,159
about uh the sorts of goldilocks

779
00:29:55,430 --> 00:29:53,279
that would

780
00:29:56,789 --> 00:29:55,440
we would want to have available and

781
00:29:59,669 --> 00:29:56,799
those can be

782
00:30:00,710 --> 00:29:59,679
illustrated by the strips of colors that

783
00:30:06,630 --> 00:30:00,720
you see

784
00:30:09,350 --> 00:30:06,640
having to do with temperature it's if

785
00:30:11,830 --> 00:30:09,360
the temperature is frozen uh life could

786
00:30:14,870 --> 00:30:11,840
not begin in ice if the temperature is

787
00:30:17,510 --> 00:30:14,880
so high to have the solution boiling

788
00:30:20,230 --> 00:30:17,520
that would be difficult to have the

789
00:30:23,190 --> 00:30:20,240
bits and pieces of life come together in

790
00:30:27,190 --> 00:30:23,200
such a way as to get a living system

791
00:30:29,590 --> 00:30:27,200
same is true of dry and wet uh and also

792
00:30:31,669 --> 00:30:29,600
light and dark if there is no light

793
00:30:33,830 --> 00:30:31,679
energy uh the

794
00:30:36,230 --> 00:30:33,840
the organisms would be stuffed at a very

795
00:30:38,549 --> 00:30:36,240
primitive level there's too much light

796
00:30:41,750 --> 00:30:38,559
energy such as uv light

797
00:30:44,470 --> 00:30:41,760
that is damaging to the compounds so

798
00:30:46,870 --> 00:30:44,480
these three strips come together in such

799
00:30:51,269 --> 00:30:46,880
a way that there is what we call an

800
00:30:53,909 --> 00:30:51,279
herbal center and that is a synaquinone

801
00:30:56,389 --> 00:30:53,919
or her ability is to have those centers

802
00:30:59,110 --> 00:30:56,399
fill up off to the right is a number of

803
00:31:00,870 --> 00:30:59,120
specific ionic solutes uh you can go all

804
00:31:03,190 --> 00:31:00,880
the way from saturated to dilute

805
00:31:04,630 --> 00:31:03,200
solutions and make the same sort of

806
00:31:06,470 --> 00:31:04,640
argument

807
00:31:08,389 --> 00:31:06,480
so let's now

808
00:31:11,590 --> 00:31:08,399
go to

809
00:31:15,190 --> 00:31:11,600
the sorts of things that we can

810
00:31:17,430 --> 00:31:15,200
add to planets to let them have

811
00:31:19,029 --> 00:31:17,440
herbal or ability

812
00:31:21,830 --> 00:31:19,039
there are two kinds of factors

813
00:31:23,750 --> 00:31:21,840
geophysical and geochemical i can only

814
00:31:26,630 --> 00:31:23,760
touch on a few of these in the time that

815
00:31:29,990 --> 00:31:26,640
i have so let's just go down a couple of

816
00:31:33,029 --> 00:31:30,000
lists of geophysical of course the size

817
00:31:34,310 --> 00:31:33,039
of the planetary body is going to be a

818
00:31:36,389 --> 00:31:34,320
part of it

819
00:31:38,870 --> 00:31:36,399
we also have to think of whether the

820
00:31:39,990 --> 00:31:38,880
planet is rotating or not that is going

821
00:31:41,190 --> 00:31:40,000
to have

822
00:31:43,909 --> 00:31:41,200
some

823
00:31:46,470 --> 00:31:43,919
effect on her ability presence or

824
00:31:49,350 --> 00:31:46,480
absence of the moon in my opinion

825
00:31:51,750 --> 00:31:49,360
probably not essential mars doesn't have

826
00:31:54,789 --> 00:31:51,760
moons but i think that early mars as you

827
00:31:57,110 --> 00:31:54,799
will see is probably herbal planetary

828
00:31:58,549 --> 00:31:57,120
core composition that is going to be

829
00:32:01,990 --> 00:31:58,559
important because that can drive

830
00:32:04,710 --> 00:32:02,000
volcanic activity and that in turn can

831
00:32:06,149 --> 00:32:04,720
go a long way toward making a planet

832
00:32:07,830 --> 00:32:06,159
herbal

833
00:32:10,549 --> 00:32:07,840
i'm just going to go through the rest of

834
00:32:13,590 --> 00:32:10,559
these quickly get down to

835
00:32:15,509 --> 00:32:13,600
geochemical activity which is the next

836
00:32:17,590 --> 00:32:15,519
slide

837
00:32:19,509 --> 00:32:17,600
these are a little bit more complex and

838
00:32:22,470 --> 00:32:19,519
again i have to go through them rather

839
00:32:25,190 --> 00:32:22,480
quickly to finish up the atmosphere

840
00:32:28,630 --> 00:32:25,200
really can't have molecular oxygen as we

841
00:32:30,310 --> 00:32:28,640
do today oxygen's corrosive of the kinds

842
00:32:33,269 --> 00:32:30,320
of molecules that we'd want to have

843
00:32:35,190 --> 00:32:33,279
there for life to begin the water if

844
00:32:37,590 --> 00:32:35,200
it's going to be a reactant has to be

845
00:32:39,990 --> 00:32:37,600
within temperature ranges that support

846
00:32:43,430 --> 00:32:40,000
prebiotic reactions the ionic

847
00:32:45,990 --> 00:32:43,440
concentrations have to be in moderate

848
00:32:47,830 --> 00:32:46,000
they can't be too salty brines or

849
00:32:49,669 --> 00:32:47,840
completely diluted

850
00:32:52,389 --> 00:32:49,679
there has to be of course elemental

851
00:32:55,909 --> 00:32:52,399
cofactors there must be

852
00:32:58,789 --> 00:32:55,919
intermediate ph ranges and there must be

853
00:33:00,230 --> 00:32:58,799
a continuous source of organic compounds

854
00:33:02,470 --> 00:33:00,240
made available

855
00:33:04,149 --> 00:33:02,480
for the rest of these i'll quickly

856
00:33:07,509 --> 00:33:04,159
click through because i want to get down

857
00:33:10,950 --> 00:33:07,519
to mars as an example

858
00:33:11,830 --> 00:33:10,960
dave david we need to wrap up okay

859
00:33:16,070 --> 00:33:11,840
uh

860
00:33:18,950 --> 00:33:16,080
mars began herbal but became inureable

861
00:33:20,870 --> 00:33:18,960
as the atmosphere was eroded

862
00:33:24,070 --> 00:33:20,880
the earth is

863
00:33:27,509 --> 00:33:24,080
began herbal but oddly enough became

864
00:33:30,070 --> 00:33:27,519
also ineurable darwin said it best

865
00:33:32,710 --> 00:33:30,080
atmos the life on earth has become so

866
00:33:35,029 --> 00:33:32,720
complex that it would simply eat the

867
00:33:35,909 --> 00:33:35,039
compounds required for the origin of

868
00:33:37,990 --> 00:33:35,919
life

869
00:33:40,870 --> 00:33:38,000
notice that this paper is coming on

870
00:33:43,190 --> 00:33:40,880
astrobiology in the next few months so

871
00:33:45,350 --> 00:33:43,200
in it we give the details of the

872
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:45,360
argument i've made here today thank you

873
00:33:54,549 --> 00:33:48,570
for your attention

874
00:34:11,430 --> 00:33:58,230
wonderful our next talk will be

875
00:34:15,669 --> 00:34:12,230
hi

876
00:34:17,750 --> 00:34:15,679
so uh let's go forward to the next light

877
00:34:21,109 --> 00:34:17,760
so we are talking about desert uh

878
00:34:23,669 --> 00:34:21,119
terrestrial deserts are expanding biome

879
00:34:25,990 --> 00:34:23,679
due to the enhanced anthropogenic and

880
00:34:29,750 --> 00:34:26,000
climate factors so there's been tons and

881
00:34:31,829 --> 00:34:29,760
tons of paper talking about this in

882
00:34:34,950 --> 00:34:31,839
particular comparing present-day

883
00:34:37,909 --> 00:34:34,960
bioclimatic information between other

884
00:34:41,030 --> 00:34:37,919
regions like the mojave desert as a part

885
00:34:42,149 --> 00:34:41,040
of the american southwest and atacama

886
00:34:43,829 --> 00:34:42,159
desert

887
00:34:46,950 --> 00:34:43,839
they would

888
00:34:48,470 --> 00:34:46,960
provide information and prediction about

889
00:34:50,790 --> 00:34:48,480
the onset

890
00:34:53,909 --> 00:34:50,800
of high priority conditions in the

891
00:34:55,909 --> 00:34:53,919
american southwest over the next decades

892
00:34:58,150 --> 00:34:55,919
and there's a lot of talking about that

893
00:35:02,230 --> 00:34:58,160
in the ipcc

894
00:35:05,109 --> 00:35:02,240
uh 2022 the sixth one and it's just

895
00:35:06,790 --> 00:35:05,119
humongous document and you can

896
00:35:10,310 --> 00:35:06,800
browse by yourself

897
00:35:12,630 --> 00:35:10,320
um so uh the mojave desert

898
00:35:15,349 --> 00:35:12,640
is uh as in the core part of the

899
00:35:18,150 --> 00:35:15,359
american southwest

900
00:35:22,230 --> 00:35:18,160
and southwest and um

901
00:35:25,670 --> 00:35:22,240
encompass california and nevada and is

902
00:35:29,030 --> 00:35:25,680
chain bound by the the sierra nevada so

903
00:35:32,390 --> 00:35:29,040
high elevation and because the site of

904
00:35:35,190 --> 00:35:32,400
uh parallel chains of um

905
00:35:38,390 --> 00:35:35,200
of of the mountains it creates a

906
00:35:41,430 --> 00:35:38,400
rainshadow exactly also other happens

907
00:35:44,390 --> 00:35:41,440
the atacama this is wise as a

908
00:35:47,589 --> 00:35:44,400
ice desert and so you can see here

909
00:35:50,069 --> 00:35:47,599
the beautifully colored picture from the

910
00:35:52,069 --> 00:35:50,079
databasing which is a nice website

911
00:35:54,230 --> 00:35:52,079
resources where you can map maximum

912
00:35:57,109 --> 00:35:54,240
temperature and uh

913
00:35:59,510 --> 00:35:57,119
rainfall and reddit index you can really

914
00:36:01,910 --> 00:35:59,520
see that the dead valet at that kind of

915
00:36:03,670 --> 00:36:01,920
super color things is where we get the

916
00:36:07,349 --> 00:36:03,680
highest temperatures

917
00:36:09,510 --> 00:36:07,359
and also we have a high aridity index

918
00:36:13,349 --> 00:36:09,520
uh beside the sierras so it

919
00:36:15,270 --> 00:36:13,359
characterized the dead valet that's a

920
00:36:18,630 --> 00:36:15,280
within the mojave desert not just as a

921
00:36:20,150 --> 00:36:18,640
hard side but just high priority side

922
00:36:21,349 --> 00:36:20,160
which is probably

923
00:36:22,470 --> 00:36:21,359
might not

924
00:36:24,950 --> 00:36:22,480
know

925
00:36:28,790 --> 00:36:24,960
is not very

926
00:36:30,950 --> 00:36:28,800
very well known so um so we have been um

927
00:36:34,710 --> 00:36:30,960
over the past uh

928
00:36:38,630 --> 00:36:34,720
14 15 years uh setting up um

929
00:36:41,349 --> 00:36:38,640
rainfall measurements using hobo rg3

930
00:36:43,829 --> 00:36:41,359
range is a tipping bucket as it allows

931
00:36:45,910 --> 00:36:43,839
for the continuous monitoring or

932
00:36:48,390 --> 00:36:45,920
rainfall and we have been setting up at

933
00:36:50,470 --> 00:36:48,400
the elevation between 650

934
00:36:52,310 --> 00:36:50,480
and 1000 meters why because this is the

935
00:36:55,270 --> 00:36:52,320
mountains this northern part of that

936
00:36:57,990 --> 00:36:55,280
valley so it's kind of sensitive region

937
00:37:00,310 --> 00:36:58,000
where to look at these variations also

938
00:37:02,230 --> 00:37:00,320
not very well known in terms of the uh

939
00:37:04,870 --> 00:37:02,240
the rain precipitation

940
00:37:07,589 --> 00:37:04,880
so these are my favorite possible

941
00:37:10,470 --> 00:37:07,599
curves where we were able to

942
00:37:11,430 --> 00:37:10,480
recover uh two years the data just in

943
00:37:13,990 --> 00:37:11,440
time

944
00:37:17,470 --> 00:37:14,000
and you can see the blue curve which is

945
00:37:20,790 --> 00:37:17,480
the cumulative rain and we can see that

946
00:37:22,710 --> 00:37:20,800
2020 was a super wet year and then the

947
00:37:24,870 --> 00:37:22,720
blue curve becomes flat which means

948
00:37:28,390 --> 00:37:24,880
there's not been rain enough so there's

949
00:37:31,030 --> 00:37:28,400
about more than 20 months that qualifies

950
00:37:35,109 --> 00:37:31,040
almost like in one of the longest period

951
00:37:38,310 --> 00:37:35,119
that uh of of drought that we have

952
00:37:43,109 --> 00:37:38,320
so here it's so you can see the uh

953
00:37:45,109 --> 00:37:43,119
dataset we gather from 2004 to 2022 of

954
00:37:47,670 --> 00:37:45,119
the monthly distribution rain where you

955
00:37:49,750 --> 00:37:47,680
can see that uh typically in the mojave

956
00:37:51,750 --> 00:37:49,760
desert in the dead valley the rain is

957
00:37:53,990 --> 00:37:51,760
concentrated between october and

958
00:37:57,109 --> 00:37:54,000
february and then we have the summer

959
00:37:59,910 --> 00:37:57,119
monsoons and but you can see the tour

960
00:38:02,710 --> 00:37:59,920
the the more recent times we have empty

961
00:38:05,510 --> 00:38:02,720
space like blank spaces just because

962
00:38:07,750 --> 00:38:05,520
we're getting lesser rain bought in

963
00:38:09,670 --> 00:38:07,760
summer and in winter actually sometimes

964
00:38:11,589 --> 00:38:09,680
more in summer independence that the

965
00:38:14,710 --> 00:38:11,599
years are wet or dry

966
00:38:17,349 --> 00:38:14,720
so um so this is the local local local

967
00:38:19,190 --> 00:38:17,359
data and we can see the total annual for

968
00:38:22,069 --> 00:38:19,200
the same period of time and we have the

969
00:38:25,829 --> 00:38:22,079
dot lines that clearly show there is a

970
00:38:29,030 --> 00:38:25,839
downward trend of we get the minima of

971
00:38:31,750 --> 00:38:29,040
in the rain uh get lesser and lesser

972
00:38:33,990 --> 00:38:31,760
over time and we can also look at the

973
00:38:38,390 --> 00:38:34,000
big picture that the climate regional

974
00:38:40,310 --> 00:38:38,400
data so matches what we see locally okay

975
00:38:44,390 --> 00:38:40,320
and

976
00:38:46,950 --> 00:38:44,400
dry cycles are a common future or

977
00:38:49,270 --> 00:38:46,960
climates but yet the drought cycles

978
00:38:51,829 --> 00:38:49,280
observed over the past 1 years include

979
00:38:54,069 --> 00:38:51,839
dry years with lava's minima this

980
00:38:56,870 --> 00:38:54,079
appears to impact the mojave desert by

981
00:39:00,310 --> 00:38:56,880
default the southwestern

982
00:39:03,190 --> 00:39:00,320
united states and this translate in some

983
00:39:05,829 --> 00:39:03,200
effect and some impact on on the entire

984
00:39:08,710 --> 00:39:05,839
ecosystem from what we can see plants

985
00:39:12,230 --> 00:39:08,720
and vascular plants what we cannot see

986
00:39:13,349 --> 00:39:12,240
um so it's getting hotter the same data

987
00:39:15,510 --> 00:39:13,359
set from

988
00:39:18,790 --> 00:39:15,520
1895

989
00:39:19,990 --> 00:39:18,800
to 2020 can clearly show that is this

990
00:39:22,950 --> 00:39:20,000
trend

991
00:39:25,270 --> 00:39:22,960
about two three celsius degrees that's

992
00:39:26,950 --> 00:39:25,280
for the mojave region the entire

993
00:39:29,190 --> 00:39:26,960
regional data set

994
00:39:32,230 --> 00:39:29,200
and then you can see the kind of like

995
00:39:35,349 --> 00:39:32,240
spiraling up you know the curve

996
00:39:37,349 --> 00:39:35,359
also matches with anadactyl observation

997
00:39:39,190 --> 00:39:37,359
which is means on a doctor perceived by

998
00:39:41,030 --> 00:39:39,200
people when you talk to the people

999
00:39:43,349 --> 00:39:41,040
that's been staying long enough in that

1000
00:39:44,230 --> 00:39:43,359
valley uh that

1001
00:39:48,230 --> 00:39:44,240
the

1002
00:39:49,829 --> 00:39:48,240
summer temperature where part of those

1003
00:39:52,790 --> 00:39:49,839
minima

1004
00:39:54,710 --> 00:39:52,800
are becoming hotter so just basically

1005
00:39:56,790 --> 00:39:54,720
the ecosystem doesn't have even those

1006
00:40:00,150 --> 00:39:56,800
three hours of reliefs where the you

1007
00:40:02,790 --> 00:40:00,160
know everybody out eat and feed and uh

1008
00:40:05,270 --> 00:40:02,800
you know that is possible uh to continue

1009
00:40:06,069 --> 00:40:05,280
life in the desert by adaptation

1010
00:40:10,630 --> 00:40:06,079
um

1011
00:40:21,109 --> 00:40:10,640
the

1012
00:40:24,230 --> 00:40:21,119
last seven years at global level have

1013
00:40:25,910 --> 00:40:24,240
been the the top hottest so this was a

1014
00:40:27,670 --> 00:40:25,920
breaking news like everything is really

1015
00:40:30,230 --> 00:40:27,680
becoming hotter we can see from the

1016
00:40:32,790 --> 00:40:30,240
local data the sub-regional data

1017
00:40:34,710 --> 00:40:32,800
original data and global data

1018
00:40:37,589 --> 00:40:34,720
so what is the impact on life because

1019
00:40:39,589 --> 00:40:37,599
this is what we really care most is that

1020
00:40:42,069 --> 00:40:39,599
you can see here all those pictures from

1021
00:40:43,910 --> 00:40:42,079
that valley so that valley is arid but

1022
00:40:46,390 --> 00:40:43,920
within the dead valley we have the high

1023
00:40:49,430 --> 00:40:46,400
periodicity gradient so we can see happy

1024
00:40:51,109 --> 00:40:49,440
plants supplements dead bodies uh

1025
00:40:53,990 --> 00:40:51,119
biological models will be never

1026
00:40:57,349 --> 00:40:54,000
recovered and if you stay long enough

1027
00:40:59,510 --> 00:40:57,359
you walk for 15 years over there you can

1028
00:41:02,710 --> 00:40:59,520
perceive like the change

1029
00:41:04,470 --> 00:41:02,720
as we speak so plants die never recover

1030
00:41:06,710 --> 00:41:04,480
when you get the wet

1031
00:41:09,349 --> 00:41:06,720
with with your back

1032
00:41:11,910 --> 00:41:09,359
to understand the impact of the iodine

1033
00:41:14,309 --> 00:41:11,920
transition on the future

1034
00:41:15,990 --> 00:41:14,319
mojave desert we can look at what's

1035
00:41:17,829 --> 00:41:16,000
happened along the latitudinal

1036
00:41:19,990 --> 00:41:17,839
precipitation gradients across the

1037
00:41:22,470 --> 00:41:20,000
atacama desert so as you know the

1038
00:41:25,270 --> 00:41:22,480
atacama desert has been defined as

1039
00:41:26,870 --> 00:41:25,280
mars like soil because in the northern

1040
00:41:30,470 --> 00:41:26,880
part we

1041
00:41:33,349 --> 00:41:30,480
soils were analyzed and beard the the

1042
00:41:36,069 --> 00:41:33,359
very very small amount of

1043
00:41:38,710 --> 00:41:36,079
biologically active microbes

1044
00:41:41,270 --> 00:41:38,720
so we can see that along the rainfall

1045
00:41:44,790 --> 00:41:41,280
the goals gradient goes from north south

1046
00:41:47,510 --> 00:41:44,800
to north we can see the reduction in

1047
00:41:50,470 --> 00:41:47,520
vascular plant density first in turmoil

1048
00:41:52,950 --> 00:41:50,480
desert ecosystem we also have a shift in

1049
00:41:54,150 --> 00:41:52,960
the thermo lesser lashes shrubs and

1050
00:41:56,710 --> 00:41:54,160
insects

1051
00:42:00,710 --> 00:41:56,720
in going toward the hypolitic algae and

1052
00:42:03,270 --> 00:42:00,720
hypolytic cyanobacteria to places where

1053
00:42:04,150 --> 00:42:03,280
going farther north where the biology

1054
00:42:06,390 --> 00:42:04,160
wins

1055
00:42:08,230 --> 00:42:06,400
in the

1056
00:42:11,190 --> 00:42:08,240
and uh and then

1057
00:42:14,150 --> 00:42:11,200
toward to lesser than minus two

1058
00:42:17,030 --> 00:42:14,160
millimeters the biology lose so this is

1059
00:42:19,510 --> 00:42:17,040
what is stopped okay but this gives us a

1060
00:42:22,069 --> 00:42:19,520
window in what could happen

1061
00:42:23,430 --> 00:42:22,079
when the reddit index drops

1062
00:42:26,150 --> 00:42:23,440
so as a

1063
00:42:28,230 --> 00:42:26,160
open portal in the future so here's the

1064
00:42:30,230 --> 00:42:28,240
micro biomass in

1065
00:42:33,750 --> 00:42:30,240
that valley versus

1066
00:42:37,190 --> 00:42:33,760
so atacama in the hyperid can goes from

1067
00:42:39,750 --> 00:42:37,200
this is atp based only active cells

1068
00:42:40,710 --> 00:42:39,760
let's say 10 to 2 to 10 to 3 cells per

1069
00:42:42,870 --> 00:42:40,720
gram

1070
00:42:45,750 --> 00:42:42,880
then you see the dead valet

1071
00:42:49,349 --> 00:42:45,760
the biomass microbial biomass can go

1072
00:42:51,430 --> 00:42:49,359
from 10 to 3 to 10 to 6 cells per grams

1073
00:42:54,470 --> 00:42:51,440
in barren volcanic materials and

1074
00:42:57,190 --> 00:42:54,480
vegetated clay rich or grounds still

1075
00:42:59,349 --> 00:42:57,200
vegetated still arid and that valley is

1076
00:43:01,670 --> 00:42:59,359
50 times weather than the hyperion core

1077
00:43:04,470 --> 00:43:01,680
the atacama desert is less than two

1078
00:43:08,790 --> 00:43:06,470
so

1079
00:43:10,870 --> 00:43:08,800
okay conclusion in the context of

1080
00:43:12,470 --> 00:43:10,880
american southwest climate evolution

1081
00:43:15,589 --> 00:43:12,480
climate models predict increasing

1082
00:43:18,390 --> 00:43:15,599
varidity of already arid regions

1083
00:43:20,710 --> 00:43:18,400
the valley is already one of the hottest

1084
00:43:23,109 --> 00:43:20,720
dry place on earth within the mojave

1085
00:43:25,510 --> 00:43:23,119
desert an easy climatic and member for

1086
00:43:29,190 --> 00:43:25,520
the entire american southwest

1087
00:43:30,950 --> 00:43:29,200
our 24 2021 precipitation data from two

1088
00:43:32,950 --> 00:43:30,960
northern the valley stations are

1089
00:43:35,430 --> 00:43:32,960
consistent with the western regional

1090
00:43:38,550 --> 00:43:35,440
climate center precipitation data

1091
00:43:40,790 --> 00:43:38,560
highlighting increasing area conditions

1092
00:43:43,430 --> 00:43:40,800
the edification seems driven by

1093
00:43:45,589 --> 00:43:43,440
increasing global air temperature

1094
00:43:47,990 --> 00:43:45,599
within the last seven years ranked as

1095
00:43:51,030 --> 00:43:48,000
the top seven hottest of the century

1096
00:43:53,910 --> 00:43:51,040
higher minimum temperature utter summer

1097
00:43:55,829 --> 00:43:53,920
higher than 35 centigrades decreasing

1098
00:43:58,069 --> 00:43:55,839
rainfall events supporting long-term

1099
00:44:00,390 --> 00:43:58,079
desert vegetation

1100
00:44:02,069 --> 00:44:00,400
and this can affect abundance growth

1101
00:44:04,309 --> 00:44:02,079
diversity and distribution of

1102
00:44:07,430 --> 00:44:04,319
microorganisms this is very important a

1103
00:44:09,829 --> 00:44:07,440
level of soil and productivity over time

1104
00:44:11,910 --> 00:44:09,839
so and bottom line the north south

1105
00:44:14,309 --> 00:44:11,920
precipitation gradient

1106
00:44:17,109 --> 00:44:14,319
across the takama desert represent a

1107
00:44:19,030 --> 00:44:17,119
bioclimate analogue for the iperarida a

1108
00:44:21,109 --> 00:44:19,040
priori transition in the american

1109
00:44:22,790 --> 00:44:21,119
southwest how much time i have that was

1110
00:44:27,190 --> 00:44:22,800
it oh okay

1111
00:44:32,390 --> 00:44:30,309
so if you want 20 seconds okay 22nd is

1112
00:44:35,109 --> 00:44:32,400
that i'm going to traumatize you with

1113
00:44:36,390 --> 00:44:35,119
additional lights this plot is becoming

1114
00:44:39,990 --> 00:44:36,400
this

1115
00:44:41,990 --> 00:44:40,000
tada after flooding in 2017

1116
00:44:44,150 --> 00:44:42,000
the atacama deserts probably is no

1117
00:44:45,990 --> 00:44:44,160
longer mars-like

1118
00:44:48,470 --> 00:44:46,000
and i'm going to traumatize you even

1119
00:44:49,750 --> 00:44:48,480
more bad news for astro biology well

1120
00:44:51,190 --> 00:44:49,760
good news for another type of

1121
00:44:52,790 --> 00:44:51,200
astrobiology

1122
00:44:58,309 --> 00:44:52,800
is what is happening

1123
00:45:03,750 --> 00:45:01,190
2017

1124
00:45:04,710 --> 00:45:03,760
2019

1125
00:45:10,870 --> 00:45:04,720
and

1126
00:45:12,790 --> 00:45:10,880
events that happens basically every year

1127
00:45:14,710 --> 00:45:12,800
and these accounts why we've been seeing

1128
00:45:17,829 --> 00:45:14,720
those speaks in

1129
00:45:20,790 --> 00:45:17,839
the last you know astrobiology driven

1130
00:45:23,010 --> 00:45:20,800
work or we've been doing atacama so

1131
00:45:30,150 --> 00:45:23,020
that's thank you

1132
00:45:40,870 --> 00:45:32,710
wonderful example of recent trends that

1133
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:44,630
and we have michael wong

1134
00:45:49,510 --> 00:45:46,550
all right hello everyone it's good to

1135
00:45:52,150 --> 00:45:49,520
see you all um thank you for organizing

1136
00:45:54,550 --> 00:45:52,160
lucas this uh this really important and

1137
00:45:56,790 --> 00:45:54,560
fun session um so today i'm excited to

1138
00:45:59,030 --> 00:45:56,800
tell you a little bit about a paper that

1139
00:46:02,150 --> 00:45:59,040
my colleague stuart bartlett and i wrote

1140
00:46:04,550 --> 00:46:02,160
and recently published in jrs interface

1141
00:46:07,109 --> 00:46:04,560
called asymptotic burnout and homo

1142
00:46:09,030 --> 00:46:07,119
homeostatic awakening a new solution to

1143
00:46:11,349 --> 00:46:09,040
the fermi paradox and don't worry if

1144
00:46:13,030 --> 00:46:11,359
these terms are unfamiliar to you we

1145
00:46:14,470 --> 00:46:13,040
literally made them up for this paper

1146
00:46:15,829 --> 00:46:14,480
and i will explain them to you in the

1147
00:46:17,750 --> 00:46:15,839
next 10 minutes

1148
00:46:19,589 --> 00:46:17,760
so uh but let's just start with one that

1149
00:46:22,150 --> 00:46:19,599
you probably have heard of before the

1150
00:46:23,990 --> 00:46:22,160
fermi paradox this is stated as in a

1151
00:46:27,270 --> 00:46:24,000
universe that seems amenable to

1152
00:46:29,430 --> 00:46:27,280
abiogenesis and the evolution of life

1153
00:46:32,390 --> 00:46:29,440
why haven't we seen definitive evidence

1154
00:46:33,990 --> 00:46:32,400
of extraterrestrial civilizations this

1155
00:46:36,550 --> 00:46:34,000
can be sometimes couched in the

1156
00:46:38,550 --> 00:46:36,560
framework of the kardashev scale and the

1157
00:46:40,950 --> 00:46:38,560
question can be posed why don't we have

1158
00:46:42,390 --> 00:46:40,960
any evidence of type 3 civilizations at

1159
00:46:45,430 --> 00:46:42,400
the galactic scale

1160
00:46:48,069 --> 00:46:45,440
in our galaxy or from as far as we know

1161
00:46:49,829 --> 00:46:48,079
in any other galaxy that we can observe

1162
00:46:52,390 --> 00:46:49,839
i think that there are two main things

1163
00:46:55,030 --> 00:46:52,400
missing to this logical framework the

1164
00:46:57,589 --> 00:46:55,040
first is that evolution we now know is

1165
00:47:00,950 --> 00:46:57,599
not only a gradual process but it is

1166
00:47:03,349 --> 00:47:00,960
punctuated by major transitions and two

1167
00:47:05,829 --> 00:47:03,359
that crises or singularities may occur

1168
00:47:08,230 --> 00:47:05,839
at the scale of cities and planets that

1169
00:47:10,230 --> 00:47:08,240
necessitate another major transition and

1170
00:47:11,990 --> 00:47:10,240
i'll explain what i mean by singularity

1171
00:47:15,430 --> 00:47:12,000
in just a sec

1172
00:47:18,069 --> 00:47:15,440
but to me the fermi paradox appears as a

1173
00:47:19,750 --> 00:47:18,079
paradox because there is an implicit

1174
00:47:22,230 --> 00:47:19,760
assumption that the trajectory of

1175
00:47:25,109 --> 00:47:22,240
quote-unquote progress can be

1176
00:47:26,870 --> 00:47:25,119
extrapolated from the past but this may

1177
00:47:28,470 --> 00:47:26,880
not be so

1178
00:47:31,109 --> 00:47:28,480
okay let me talk about the singularity

1179
00:47:34,710 --> 00:47:31,119
so this comes from research thinking

1180
00:47:37,190 --> 00:47:34,720
about cities as sociological organisms

1181
00:47:38,829 --> 00:47:37,200
so there's been well-documented research

1182
00:47:42,870 --> 00:47:38,839
showing that

1183
00:47:45,109 --> 00:47:42,880
socioeconomic metrics patents gdp r d

1184
00:47:47,109 --> 00:47:45,119
total energy usage etc

1185
00:47:49,670 --> 00:47:47,119
scale super linearly with city

1186
00:47:51,510 --> 00:47:49,680
population so in log log plots like i'm

1187
00:47:53,589 --> 00:47:51,520
showing you here on the left hand side

1188
00:47:54,950 --> 00:47:53,599
you see these linear trends and they

1189
00:47:57,510 --> 00:47:54,960
have a slope of greater than one

1190
00:47:59,829 --> 00:47:57,520
something around 1.15 or so

1191
00:48:01,829 --> 00:47:59,839
and this super linear scaling has been

1192
00:48:03,750 --> 00:48:01,839
attributed to the social nature of

1193
00:48:06,309 --> 00:48:03,760
cities that social networks are driven

1194
00:48:08,790 --> 00:48:06,319
by information flow overlaying on top of

1195
00:48:10,950 --> 00:48:08,800
energy and material networks and so

1196
00:48:12,710 --> 00:48:10,960
there's an analogy to be made between

1197
00:48:14,870 --> 00:48:12,720
cities and stars from astrophysics we

1198
00:48:16,870 --> 00:48:14,880
know that stars are basically nuclear

1199
00:48:19,270 --> 00:48:16,880
reactors where the larger the star is

1200
00:48:20,790 --> 00:48:19,280
the faster it it is able to sustain

1201
00:48:22,549 --> 00:48:20,800
nuclear reactions the faster it goes

1202
00:48:24,470 --> 00:48:22,559
through nuclear reactions the same thing

1203
00:48:26,549 --> 00:48:24,480
for cities the larger city is the faster

1204
00:48:27,910 --> 00:48:26,559
the social interactions in cities are in

1205
00:48:31,270 --> 00:48:27,920
fact it's been shown that people

1206
00:48:33,270 --> 00:48:31,280
actually walk faster in larger cities

1207
00:48:35,589 --> 00:48:33,280
can we so so um

1208
00:48:37,670 --> 00:48:35,599
research by bettencourt uh at all have

1209
00:48:39,750 --> 00:48:37,680
shown that super linear scaling can

1210
00:48:41,510 --> 00:48:39,760
drive singularities and so by

1211
00:48:43,190 --> 00:48:41,520
singularity this means an infinite

1212
00:48:45,430 --> 00:48:43,200
amount of n and it's just something that

1213
00:48:48,150 --> 00:48:45,440
scales super linearly population or

1214
00:48:49,670 --> 00:48:48,160
energy usage in a finite amount of time

1215
00:48:51,510 --> 00:48:49,680
and obviously that is not possible

1216
00:48:53,990 --> 00:48:51,520
that's not sustainable or reachable but

1217
00:48:55,829 --> 00:48:54,000
you can push back this singularity or

1218
00:48:57,589 --> 00:48:55,839
crisis further and further in time

1219
00:48:59,510 --> 00:48:57,599
through innovations that reset

1220
00:49:01,109 --> 00:48:59,520
parameters in this general growth

1221
00:49:03,829 --> 00:49:01,119
equation

1222
00:49:05,589 --> 00:49:03,839
now the time scale between necessary

1223
00:49:08,069 --> 00:49:05,599
innovations to keep pushing yourself

1224
00:49:10,790 --> 00:49:08,079
back further in time uh in the future

1225
00:49:12,790 --> 00:49:10,800
before you reach a crisis will decrease

1226
00:49:14,829 --> 00:49:12,800
as time goes on so the pace of

1227
00:49:17,030 --> 00:49:14,839
innovations must

1228
00:49:19,589 --> 00:49:17,040
increase can we

1229
00:49:21,190 --> 00:49:19,599
extrapolate this to the planetary scale

1230
00:49:23,190 --> 00:49:21,200
i think that we might

1231
00:49:24,870 --> 00:49:23,200
because we are currently undergoing a

1232
00:49:26,710 --> 00:49:24,880
major transition in information

1233
00:49:28,549 --> 00:49:26,720
processing right now and we can see the

1234
00:49:30,870 --> 00:49:28,559
evolution of life as a series of major

1235
00:49:32,390 --> 00:49:30,880
transitions uh information processing

1236
00:49:34,790 --> 00:49:32,400
happening at the chemical scale within

1237
00:49:37,270 --> 00:49:34,800
our genomes then in the neuronal

1238
00:49:39,349 --> 00:49:37,280
architecture of our brains and finally

1239
00:49:41,670 --> 00:49:39,359
now in this distributed information

1240
00:49:43,430 --> 00:49:41,680
processing global scale through our

1241
00:49:44,950 --> 00:49:43,440
technology or what caleb scharf might

1242
00:49:45,750 --> 00:49:44,960
call the data ohm

1243
00:49:48,549 --> 00:49:45,760
so

1244
00:49:49,990 --> 00:49:48,559
technology has enabled us to sidestep

1245
00:49:52,549 --> 00:49:50,000
literally sidestep the physical

1246
00:49:54,309 --> 00:49:52,559
limitations of human social interactions

1247
00:49:55,990 --> 00:49:54,319
and remember that it's the social

1248
00:49:59,030 --> 00:49:56,000
interactions that seem to drive the

1249
00:50:01,510 --> 00:49:59,040
super linear scaling of cities and so

1250
00:50:04,710 --> 00:50:01,520
therefore i i think that a planet need

1251
00:50:06,710 --> 00:50:04,720
not physically be one global city for a

1252
00:50:07,990 --> 00:50:06,720
planetary civilization to behave like

1253
00:50:09,829 --> 00:50:08,000
one in other words you don't need to

1254
00:50:11,589 --> 00:50:09,839
have coruscant for our star wars fans in

1255
00:50:14,069 --> 00:50:11,599
the audience for a planetary

1256
00:50:16,069 --> 00:50:14,079
civilization to scale superlinearly

1257
00:50:18,390 --> 00:50:16,079
and so the asymptotic burnout hypothesis

1258
00:50:20,630 --> 00:50:18,400
is this that a planetary civilization

1259
00:50:23,190 --> 00:50:20,640
optimizing for growth and productivity

1260
00:50:25,109 --> 00:50:23,200
will march towards a singularity at some

1261
00:50:28,150 --> 00:50:25,119
point it will no longer be able to be

1262
00:50:29,829 --> 00:50:28,160
sustained by the resources resources

1263
00:50:31,829 --> 00:50:29,839
that it can

1264
00:50:33,349 --> 00:50:31,839
collect because of the singularity

1265
00:50:35,109 --> 00:50:33,359
infinite amount of energy usage in a

1266
00:50:37,190 --> 00:50:35,119
finite amount of time

1267
00:50:39,030 --> 00:50:37,200
and you know it's a problem that these

1268
00:50:40,790 --> 00:50:39,040
cycles of innovation keep getting faster

1269
00:50:42,870 --> 00:50:40,800
and faster but not only that the

1270
00:50:45,270 --> 00:50:42,880
magnitude of disruptive fluctuations

1271
00:50:48,230 --> 00:50:45,280
that the civilization can impart on

1272
00:50:50,790 --> 00:50:48,240
itself grows as energy and information

1273
00:50:53,670 --> 00:50:50,800
harnessing powers grow so our unlocking

1274
00:50:54,470 --> 00:50:53,680
of fossil fuels has induced climate

1275
00:50:56,790 --> 00:50:54,480
change

1276
00:50:59,030 --> 00:50:56,800
our unlocking of the power of the atom

1277
00:51:01,589 --> 00:50:59,040
has induced the potential for nuclear

1278
00:51:02,950 --> 00:51:01,599
disaster and our unlocking of or the

1279
00:51:04,950 --> 00:51:02,960
invention of the internet and our

1280
00:51:07,910 --> 00:51:04,960
distributive cognitive processes through

1281
00:51:10,710 --> 00:51:07,920
our technology invites what i call a

1282
00:51:12,710 --> 00:51:10,720
disinformation catastrophe

1283
00:51:14,549 --> 00:51:12,720
so is there a way out of this we propose

1284
00:51:16,630 --> 00:51:14,559
a hypothetical scenario called a

1285
00:51:18,150 --> 00:51:16,640
homeostatic awakening which is that

1286
00:51:20,710 --> 00:51:18,160
prior to burnout a planetary

1287
00:51:22,549 --> 00:51:20,720
civilization has the chance to realize

1288
00:51:25,589 --> 00:51:22,559
the trajectory that it is on and affect

1289
00:51:28,069 --> 00:51:25,599
some kind of conscious adjustment to it

1290
00:51:30,390 --> 00:51:28,079
on earth this awakening has required a

1291
00:51:32,230 --> 00:51:30,400
cognitive horizon that only emerged at

1292
00:51:34,150 --> 00:51:32,240
the scale of civilization so we're kind

1293
00:51:36,230 --> 00:51:34,160
of in a catch-22 here we kind of need to

1294
00:51:38,470 --> 00:51:36,240
be a planetary civilization before you

1295
00:51:40,870 --> 00:51:38,480
can realize that civilizations tend to

1296
00:51:43,430 --> 00:51:40,880
set themselves up on these superlinear

1297
00:51:45,270 --> 00:51:43,440
trajectories towards burnout

1298
00:51:46,950 --> 00:51:45,280
therefore the window of opportunity that

1299
00:51:49,190 --> 00:51:46,960
a civilization may have

1300
00:51:51,510 --> 00:51:49,200
could be very short compared to classic

1301
00:51:53,510 --> 00:51:51,520
geological and evolutionary time scales

1302
00:51:55,349 --> 00:51:53,520
and also the requirements for rewriting

1303
00:51:57,109 --> 00:51:55,359
the underlying dynamics of society in

1304
00:51:59,510 --> 00:51:57,119
this way are highly unknown because we

1305
00:52:01,510 --> 00:51:59,520
haven't done it yet

1306
00:52:03,349 --> 00:52:01,520
are there reasons for optimism we

1307
00:52:05,190 --> 00:52:03,359
outlined several in the paper i'll give

1308
00:52:06,950 --> 00:52:05,200
you one here which is that previous

1309
00:52:09,270 --> 00:52:06,960
evolutionary adaptations show that

1310
00:52:11,670 --> 00:52:09,280
homeostasis can be achieved when new

1311
00:52:13,190 --> 00:52:11,680
levels of organization emerge so for

1312
00:52:15,109 --> 00:52:13,200
instance bacteria can do this thing

1313
00:52:17,030 --> 00:52:15,119
called quorum sensing which is they can

1314
00:52:18,470 --> 00:52:17,040
understand that they're in a very the

1315
00:52:19,990 --> 00:52:18,480
the population of cells around them is

1316
00:52:22,790 --> 00:52:20,000
very dense and that will actually

1317
00:52:24,549 --> 00:52:22,800
trigger a change in their uh gene

1318
00:52:26,069 --> 00:52:24,559
expression that changes their behavior

1319
00:52:28,230 --> 00:52:26,079
as a result of living in a very dense

1320
00:52:29,910 --> 00:52:28,240
environment multicellularity of course

1321
00:52:31,510 --> 00:52:29,920
is a very classic example of how

1322
00:52:33,349 --> 00:52:31,520
homeostasis can be achieved at new

1323
00:52:35,430 --> 00:52:33,359
levels of organization and there's been

1324
00:52:37,270 --> 00:52:35,440
very recent research into how cancer

1325
00:52:40,230 --> 00:52:37,280
cells can be normalized through

1326
00:52:42,030 --> 00:52:40,240
bioelectric signaling in the organism

1327
00:52:43,790 --> 00:52:42,040
so i wonder is

1328
00:52:46,390 --> 00:52:43,800
self-awareness-driven priorities

1329
00:52:49,190 --> 00:52:46,400
re-prioritization towards homeostasis

1330
00:52:52,230 --> 00:52:49,200
the next transition that life takes or

1331
00:52:54,630 --> 00:52:52,240
must take after civilization as we know

1332
00:52:56,150 --> 00:52:54,640
it so in graphical form we hypothesize

1333
00:52:58,390 --> 00:52:56,160
this that after the origin of the data

1334
00:53:00,069 --> 00:52:58,400
ohm or the onset of civilization

1335
00:53:02,230 --> 00:53:00,079
civilizations will increase in

1336
00:53:03,910 --> 00:53:02,240
population size and either

1337
00:53:06,069 --> 00:53:03,920
follow a burnout trajectory after they

1338
00:53:07,670 --> 00:53:06,079
reach this burnout horizon or realize

1339
00:53:09,510 --> 00:53:07,680
that they're headed towards that and

1340
00:53:11,750 --> 00:53:09,520
then consciously adjust their path

1341
00:53:14,470 --> 00:53:11,760
towards homeostatic reorientation

1342
00:53:16,309 --> 00:53:14,480
meaning that the volume of state space

1343
00:53:18,390 --> 00:53:16,319
that belongs to these hypothetical type

1344
00:53:20,870 --> 00:53:18,400
three civilizations is relatively

1345
00:53:22,790 --> 00:53:20,880
difficult to reach

1346
00:53:24,710 --> 00:53:22,800
so we think that this constitutes a

1347
00:53:26,630 --> 00:53:24,720
novel solution or quote unquote solution

1348
00:53:29,109 --> 00:53:26,640
to the fermi paradox because previous

1349
00:53:31,349 --> 00:53:29,119
solutions often invoke bottlenecks that

1350
00:53:34,230 --> 00:53:31,359
are probability based they're basically

1351
00:53:35,750 --> 00:53:34,240
equating a low very very low value to a

1352
00:53:38,390 --> 00:53:35,760
drake equation parameter so maybe the

1353
00:53:40,470 --> 00:53:38,400
origin of life happens one out of one to

1354
00:53:41,910 --> 00:53:40,480
the power 100 times or the origin of

1355
00:53:43,430 --> 00:53:41,920
complex life or the origin of

1356
00:53:45,589 --> 00:53:43,440
intelligence or civilizations is just

1357
00:53:47,109 --> 00:53:45,599
super super rare but our proposal is

1358
00:53:49,190 --> 00:53:47,119
different it's that maybe there's an

1359
00:53:51,190 --> 00:53:49,200
inevitable barrier emergent from the

1360
00:53:52,950 --> 00:53:51,200
dynamics of energy and information flow

1361
00:53:54,630 --> 00:53:52,960
within a living system that

1362
00:53:56,950 --> 00:53:54,640
civilizations will either meet and face

1363
00:53:59,190 --> 00:53:56,960
plant into or realize they're headed

1364
00:54:01,109 --> 00:53:59,200
towards and learn to redirect themselves

1365
00:54:02,710 --> 00:54:01,119
around

1366
00:54:04,470 --> 00:54:02,720
so the implications of this one of the

1367
00:54:06,710 --> 00:54:04,480
implications is that the expected

1368
00:54:09,270 --> 00:54:06,720
lifetime of civilizations might be

1369
00:54:11,030 --> 00:54:09,280
bimodal if this hypothesis is borne out

1370
00:54:13,349 --> 00:54:11,040
actually i should note um that this

1371
00:54:15,589 --> 00:54:13,359
whole thought process was spurred by a

1372
00:54:17,430 --> 00:54:15,599
panel that bob hazen invited me to all

1373
00:54:19,109 --> 00:54:17,440
about this expected lifetime of

1374
00:54:20,950 --> 00:54:19,119
civilizations i started thinking what in

1375
00:54:22,309 --> 00:54:20,960
the world can i possibly say about this

1376
00:54:24,470 --> 00:54:22,319
uh but anyway that's an anecdote that's

1377
00:54:28,870 --> 00:54:24,480
probably too long for uh this 10-minute

1378
00:54:30,630 --> 00:54:28,880
talk so bimodal uh distribution to l um

1379
00:54:32,309 --> 00:54:30,640
you know we would expect if this

1380
00:54:34,069 --> 00:54:32,319
hypothesis were true that you would have

1381
00:54:35,990 --> 00:54:34,079
a pile up of civilizations that have

1382
00:54:37,270 --> 00:54:36,000
collapsed due to burnout a pileup of

1383
00:54:39,190 --> 00:54:37,280
civilizations that have achieved

1384
00:54:40,630 --> 00:54:39,200
homeostatic reorientation and virtually

1385
00:54:42,630 --> 00:54:40,640
nothing in between

1386
00:54:44,309 --> 00:54:42,640
in fact jill tarter

1387
00:54:45,750 --> 00:54:44,319
proposed to us that maybe it's the

1388
00:54:47,670 --> 00:54:45,760
detection of extraterrestrial

1389
00:54:50,230 --> 00:54:47,680
intelligence that is what gets you from

1390
00:54:51,670 --> 00:54:50,240
one hump to the other um but i think

1391
00:54:53,430 --> 00:54:51,680
there's there might be a catch to this

1392
00:54:55,750 --> 00:54:53,440
which is that civilizations that are

1393
00:54:57,190 --> 00:54:55,760
about to burn out may be the easiest to

1394
00:54:59,910 --> 00:54:57,200
detect because they are dissipating

1395
00:55:01,589 --> 00:54:59,920
energy at a wildly unsustainable rate

1396
00:55:03,910 --> 00:55:01,599
whereas uh those that have achieved

1397
00:55:05,510 --> 00:55:03,920
homeostatic reorientation may be

1398
00:55:07,510 --> 00:55:05,520
indistinguishable from nature or very

1399
00:55:09,510 --> 00:55:07,520
difficult to detect

1400
00:55:11,349 --> 00:55:09,520
so i'll leave you with my conclusions uh

1401
00:55:13,589 --> 00:55:11,359
the definitions of these hypotheses

1402
00:55:16,309 --> 00:55:13,599
asymptotic burnout homeostatic awakening

1403
00:55:17,990 --> 00:55:16,319
and how this may constitute a novel uh

1404
00:55:20,150 --> 00:55:18,000
solution a resolution to the fermi

1405
00:55:21,990 --> 00:55:20,160
paradox i want to reiterate that this is

1406
00:55:24,470 --> 00:55:22,000
just a hypothesis we're not claiming

1407
00:55:26,309 --> 00:55:24,480
that this is necessarily true or fact

1408
00:55:28,470 --> 00:55:26,319
but just this is just adding another

1409
00:55:30,150 --> 00:55:28,480
idea to the table to spark discussion

1410
00:55:31,910 --> 00:55:30,160
and introspection especially about

1411
00:55:34,230 --> 00:55:31,920
whether or not we are on this kind of

1412
00:55:36,950 --> 00:55:34,240
trajectory and how we can determine if

1413
00:55:38,470 --> 00:55:36,960
we are and what to do if we find that we

1414
00:55:41,430 --> 00:55:38,480
actually are headed on a burnout

1415
00:55:43,670 --> 00:55:41,440
trajectory um i also want to just leave

1416
00:55:45,190 --> 00:55:43,680
you know you with this thought uh

1417
00:55:46,789 --> 00:55:45,200
because this session is titled the

1418
00:55:49,030 --> 00:55:46,799
future of life

1419
00:55:50,390 --> 00:55:49,040
that um you know if we look backwards at

1420
00:55:51,910 --> 00:55:50,400
the evolution of life we realize that

1421
00:55:54,470 --> 00:55:51,920
life has gone through many major

1422
00:55:55,990 --> 00:55:54,480
transitions and complexity organization

1423
00:55:57,430 --> 00:55:56,000
units of selection and information

1424
00:56:01,109 --> 00:55:57,440
processing and that we're going through

1425
00:56:02,950 --> 00:56:01,119
one right now and so it worries me a

1426
00:56:04,789 --> 00:56:02,960
little bit to talk about

1427
00:56:06,549 --> 00:56:04,799
extraterrestrial civilizations

1428
00:56:09,670 --> 00:56:06,559
colonizing the galaxy in this

1429
00:56:11,910 --> 00:56:09,680
unsustainable manner uh when you know

1430
00:56:13,589 --> 00:56:11,920
that's that's based on simply that

1431
00:56:16,069 --> 00:56:13,599
that's what you know our ancestors have

1432
00:56:18,789 --> 00:56:16,079
done here on our planet thank you very

1433
00:56:18,799 --> 00:56:24,230
awesome thank you

1434
00:56:33,750 --> 00:56:26,630
and our next presentation will be by cat

1435
00:56:38,789 --> 00:56:36,150
um hello i'm super excited to be here so

1436
00:56:41,030 --> 00:56:38,799
my name's kat gillen um i'm from durham

1437
00:56:42,789 --> 00:56:41,040
university i just started phd there

1438
00:56:44,870 --> 00:56:42,799
as part of a project called the eureka

1439
00:56:46,470 --> 00:56:44,880
project which stands for exploring

1440
00:56:47,910 --> 00:56:46,480
uncertainty and risk in contemporary

1441
00:56:48,870 --> 00:56:47,920
astrobiology

1442
00:56:50,230 --> 00:56:48,880
so

1443
00:56:52,390 --> 00:56:50,240
today i'm going to talk about the rather

1444
00:56:55,270 --> 00:56:52,400
salaciously named talk how to be a

1445
00:56:57,670 --> 00:56:55,280
rational astrobiologist so i will be

1446
00:56:59,430 --> 00:56:57,680
talking about a particular type of bias

1447
00:57:01,829 --> 00:56:59,440
exists widespread in the psychology of

1448
00:57:03,750 --> 00:57:01,839
reasoning so that's called my side bias

1449
00:57:05,829 --> 00:57:03,760
and i will discuss as there's evidence

1450
00:57:06,789 --> 00:57:05,839
that this might exist in astrobiology

1451
00:57:09,030 --> 00:57:06,799
and i'll discuss some of the

1452
00:57:09,829 --> 00:57:09,040
implications of this

1453
00:57:15,750 --> 00:57:09,839
so

1454
00:57:17,670 --> 00:57:15,760
inherently uncertain indicators of life

1455
00:57:19,670 --> 00:57:17,680
so even if you get the kind of smoking

1456
00:57:22,710 --> 00:57:19,680
gun bio signature like an oxygen methane

1457
00:57:24,069 --> 00:57:22,720
disequilibrium around a planet you still

1458
00:57:26,309 --> 00:57:24,079
wouldn't change your probability that

1459
00:57:28,950 --> 00:57:26,319
there's a life on that planet to 100

1460
00:57:31,430 --> 00:57:28,960
so there is a need for a mechanism for

1461
00:57:32,950 --> 00:57:31,440
updating your prior belief based on this

1462
00:57:34,870 --> 00:57:32,960
uncertain information and usually

1463
00:57:36,870 --> 00:57:34,880
bayesian statistics is suggested to do

1464
00:57:37,829 --> 00:57:36,880
this and it's widely explored in the

1465
00:57:39,589 --> 00:57:37,839
literature

1466
00:57:40,950 --> 00:57:39,599
uh like the main benefit of this well

1467
00:57:42,870 --> 00:57:40,960
one of the main benefits is that if you

1468
00:57:45,430 --> 00:57:42,880
do follow bayesian statistics you'll be

1469
00:57:47,030 --> 00:57:45,440
protected from violating the axioms of

1470
00:57:49,270 --> 00:57:47,040
probability

1471
00:57:51,349 --> 00:57:49,280
so that's great but the question remains

1472
00:57:53,510 --> 00:57:51,359
of whether astrobiology biologists do

1473
00:57:55,910 --> 00:57:53,520
actually update their beliefs in

1474
00:57:57,190 --> 00:57:55,920
compliance with bayesian updating

1475
00:58:00,150 --> 00:57:57,200
so

1476
00:58:02,470 --> 00:58:00,160
in a paper release last year baines and

1477
00:58:03,430 --> 00:58:02,480
pakovsky attempted to answer just this

1478
00:58:04,789 --> 00:58:03,440
question

1479
00:58:08,710 --> 00:58:04,799
so

1480
00:58:10,630 --> 00:58:08,720
for the greaves at our paper detecting

1481
00:58:12,549 --> 00:58:10,640
phosphine in the cloud decks of venus

1482
00:58:14,950 --> 00:58:12,559
and so interestingly they sent out a

1483
00:58:16,950 --> 00:58:14,960
survey before the release of this paper

1484
00:58:18,069 --> 00:58:16,960
the grieves that our paper

1485
00:58:20,230 --> 00:58:18,079
asking

1486
00:58:22,230 --> 00:58:20,240
a bunch of astrobiologists and also

1487
00:58:24,230 --> 00:58:22,240
researchers in related fields what they

1488
00:58:25,750 --> 00:58:24,240
thought the probability of finding life

1489
00:58:28,950 --> 00:58:25,760
on these five bodies were so we've got

1490
00:58:29,990 --> 00:58:28,960
enceladus europa mars titan and venus

1491
00:58:31,829 --> 00:58:30,000
and then that's what we've got in the

1492
00:58:33,190 --> 00:58:31,839
first survey there we've got the results

1493
00:58:34,789 --> 00:58:33,200
and then the paper came out and then

1494
00:58:36,470 --> 00:58:34,799
they sent out a second survey asking the

1495
00:58:38,230 --> 00:58:36,480
same question

1496
00:58:39,910 --> 00:58:38,240
so yeah we can see that there's a

1497
00:58:42,069 --> 00:58:39,920
statistically significant change for

1498
00:58:43,750 --> 00:58:42,079
venus uh just looking at the first

1499
00:58:45,910 --> 00:58:43,760
survey the respondents were super

1500
00:58:47,750 --> 00:58:45,920
skeptical at first

1501
00:58:49,430 --> 00:58:47,760
well nearly half of the respondents said

1502
00:58:50,789 --> 00:58:49,440
there was a zero percent chance and this

1503
00:58:54,069 --> 00:58:50,799
is kind of trickled up with the second

1504
00:58:56,309 --> 00:58:54,079
survey so there has been an update in uh

1505
00:58:58,309 --> 00:58:56,319
the respondent's probabilities for life

1506
00:59:01,510 --> 00:58:58,319
on venus presumably due to this paper

1507
00:59:03,190 --> 00:59:01,520
that's come out um so yeah is this a

1508
00:59:04,630 --> 00:59:03,200
bayesian update though can we can we say

1509
00:59:06,150 --> 00:59:04,640
this fits with it within a bayesian

1510
00:59:08,230 --> 00:59:06,160
model

1511
00:59:10,789 --> 00:59:08,240
so that's what they then explored in

1512
00:59:12,789 --> 00:59:10,799
this paper um and ultimately they

1513
00:59:15,030 --> 00:59:12,799
concluded no so

1514
00:59:16,549 --> 00:59:15,040
yeah baines and pakovsky did a uh

1515
00:59:18,470 --> 00:59:16,559
principal components analysis which

1516
00:59:21,349 --> 00:59:18,480
we've got there in that graph

1517
00:59:22,950 --> 00:59:21,359
um basically they took a they took four

1518
00:59:25,829 --> 00:59:22,960
thousand combinations of prior

1519
00:59:28,549 --> 00:59:25,839
probabilities um to allow for this whole

1520
00:59:30,309 --> 00:59:28,559
range of different priors um and saw

1521
00:59:31,670 --> 00:59:30,319
whether any of those would fit within a

1522
00:59:34,150 --> 00:59:31,680
bayesian model for what the respondent

1523
00:59:36,150 --> 00:59:34,160
said and they found that no so the blue

1524
00:59:39,109 --> 00:59:36,160
dots they are the bayesian models and

1525
00:59:40,789 --> 00:59:39,119
the red dot there that is the um

1526
00:59:42,069 --> 00:59:40,799
what the respondents of the survey came

1527
00:59:44,069 --> 00:59:42,079
out as

1528
00:59:45,829 --> 00:59:44,079
okay so interestingly they did find that

1529
00:59:48,150 --> 00:59:45,839
if you artificially double the two

1530
00:59:49,589 --> 00:59:48,160
percent bin so i'll just go back like if

1531
00:59:50,950 --> 00:59:49,599
you look in the second survey the two

1532
00:59:53,109 --> 00:59:50,960
percent bin is that kind of orangey

1533
00:59:55,109 --> 00:59:53,119
yellow one then you do bump up the

1534
00:59:57,670 --> 00:59:55,119
results to within a bayesian regime but

1535
00:59:58,870 --> 00:59:57,680
uh this is just artificially done so

1536
01:00:00,230 --> 00:59:58,880
ultimately they found that the

1537
01:00:03,430 --> 01:00:00,240
respondents were not increasing their

1538
01:00:05,109 --> 01:00:03,440
credence enough uh based on the the

1539
01:00:06,230 --> 01:00:05,119
apparent bio signature

1540
01:00:07,910 --> 01:00:06,240
so they concluded that they weren't

1541
01:00:10,150 --> 01:00:07,920
rational so that they weren't bayesian

1542
01:00:12,549 --> 01:00:10,160
but they were nonetheless rational

1543
01:00:14,630 --> 01:00:12,559
okay so this is something i would now

1544
01:00:15,430 --> 01:00:14,640
like to challenge just that second bit

1545
01:00:17,670 --> 01:00:15,440
so

1546
01:00:19,510 --> 01:00:17,680
um i propose instead that yeah indeed

1547
01:00:21,030 --> 01:00:19,520
the the astrobiologists did not fit

1548
01:00:22,549 --> 01:00:21,040
within a bayesian model but they might

1549
01:00:23,510 --> 01:00:22,559
instead have been exhibiting my side

1550
01:00:24,230 --> 01:00:23,520
bias

1551
01:00:26,710 --> 01:00:24,240
so

1552
01:00:27,829 --> 01:00:26,720
nicei bias it is a well documented

1553
01:00:30,630 --> 01:00:27,839
phenomenon in the psychology of

1554
01:00:32,950 --> 01:00:30,640
reasoning it exists in many fields

1555
01:00:35,589 --> 01:00:32,960
and just in short if you're my side bias

1556
01:00:37,109 --> 01:00:35,599
then if your probabilities exist towards

1557
01:00:38,549 --> 01:00:37,119
the extreme so maybe you strongly

1558
01:00:40,630 --> 01:00:38,559
believe something or strongly don't

1559
01:00:42,309 --> 01:00:40,640
believe something then you will weigh

1560
01:00:44,150 --> 01:00:42,319
selectively weigh evidence so more

1561
01:00:45,750 --> 01:00:44,160
specifically if you really strongly

1562
01:00:47,349 --> 01:00:45,760
believe something and you hear evidence

1563
01:00:49,030 --> 01:00:47,359
that says otherwise then you'll see that

1564
01:00:51,109 --> 01:00:49,040
as a bad argument and you'll underweight

1565
01:00:52,549 --> 01:00:51,119
that evidence whereas if you get if you

1566
01:00:53,910 --> 01:00:52,559
hear evidence which confirms your

1567
01:00:55,430 --> 01:00:53,920
existing prior then you're going to

1568
01:00:57,750 --> 01:00:55,440
overweigh that evidence

1569
01:00:59,349 --> 01:00:57,760
and sort of double down on your beliefs

1570
01:01:01,349 --> 01:00:59,359
and then yeah if you just have 0.5

1571
01:01:03,030 --> 01:01:01,359
probability you won't exhibit my side

1572
01:01:04,950 --> 01:01:03,040
bias and it gets stronger towards the

1573
01:01:07,190 --> 01:01:04,960
extremes

1574
01:01:09,270 --> 01:01:07,200
so just looking back at the data then if

1575
01:01:12,230 --> 01:01:09,280
we just see how if this does indeed fit

1576
01:01:14,150 --> 01:01:12,240
more accurately fit the data so yeah we

1577
01:01:15,990 --> 01:01:14,160
can see with the first survey

1578
01:01:17,910 --> 01:01:16,000
the respondents were very

1579
01:01:19,670 --> 01:01:17,920
towards the extreme like

1580
01:01:21,910 --> 01:01:19,680
most people said zero or one percent

1581
01:01:23,829 --> 01:01:21,920
chance of finding life on venus and so

1582
01:01:25,990 --> 01:01:23,839
my side buyers will predict that if

1583
01:01:28,230 --> 01:01:26,000
these respondents hear information that

1584
01:01:30,630 --> 01:01:28,240
says otherwise they will instantly view

1585
01:01:32,950 --> 01:01:30,640
that information as a bad argument and

1586
01:01:34,789 --> 01:01:32,960
so won't incorporate that in a way that

1587
01:01:35,750 --> 01:01:34,799
bayesian statistics would compel that

1588
01:01:37,030 --> 01:01:35,760
they do

1589
01:01:39,190 --> 01:01:37,040
so therefore they wouldn't increase

1590
01:01:41,670 --> 01:01:39,200
their credence enough which indeed was

1591
01:01:43,910 --> 01:01:41,680
what the banes and pikowsky paper uh

1592
01:01:47,190 --> 01:01:43,920
because paper showed so

1593
01:01:49,510 --> 01:01:47,200
that's great okay so if indeed uh

1594
01:01:50,789 --> 01:01:49,520
astrobiologists are exhibiting mice bias

1595
01:01:53,109 --> 01:01:50,799
what would be the undesirable

1596
01:01:55,270 --> 01:01:53,119
implications of this so the the main

1597
01:01:57,750 --> 01:01:55,280
concern with my side bias is that

1598
01:01:59,430 --> 01:01:57,760
updating is non-commutative so this just

1599
01:02:00,870 --> 01:01:59,440
means that if you it matters what order

1600
01:02:04,150 --> 01:02:00,880
you learn evidence in

1601
01:02:06,069 --> 01:02:04,160
so i've just got a sort of figure here

1602
01:02:08,470 --> 01:02:06,079
whereby say you start off with a

1603
01:02:10,630 --> 01:02:08,480
probability of 0.5 then you hear

1604
01:02:12,150 --> 01:02:10,640
information which bumps you up you will

1605
01:02:13,910 --> 01:02:12,160
then become biased against information

1606
01:02:15,510 --> 01:02:13,920
that's going to bring you back down so

1607
01:02:17,589 --> 01:02:15,520
if this was just a bayesian agent they

1608
01:02:20,470 --> 01:02:17,599
would end up back down at 0.5 for their

1609
01:02:22,069 --> 01:02:20,480
final posterior but yeah a my side bias

1610
01:02:23,990 --> 01:02:22,079
agent we get this divergence because

1611
01:02:25,510 --> 01:02:24,000
conversely if you heard the negative

1612
01:02:26,630 --> 01:02:25,520
information first you become biased

1613
01:02:29,029 --> 01:02:26,640
against the information that brings you

1614
01:02:31,109 --> 01:02:29,039
back up so yeah you get this splitting

1615
01:02:33,349 --> 01:02:31,119
of views and it and it depends on what

1616
01:02:34,630 --> 01:02:33,359
order you hear your evidence in

1617
01:02:41,109 --> 01:02:34,640
so

1618
01:02:43,029 --> 01:02:41,119
was a lot of buzz about finding life on

1619
01:02:46,230 --> 01:02:43,039
mars and then the viking land mission

1620
01:02:49,029 --> 01:02:46,240
came back somewhat negative but then um

1621
01:02:51,750 --> 01:02:49,039
in 2006 there was this evidence that the

1622
01:02:53,349 --> 01:02:51,760
the tv gc ms experiments were not

1623
01:02:55,349 --> 01:02:53,359
actually sensitive enough to pick up on

1624
01:02:57,510 --> 01:02:55,359
some of the organic material so they had

1625
01:02:58,710 --> 01:02:57,520
like taken sample soils around earth

1626
01:03:00,870 --> 01:02:58,720
which are known to contain organic

1627
01:03:04,230 --> 01:03:00,880
material and it did not pick up on on

1628
01:03:05,990 --> 01:03:04,240
this so this should somewhat uh negate

1629
01:03:07,990 --> 01:03:06,000
some of the results from the land

1630
01:03:09,349 --> 01:03:08,000
emission but um

1631
01:03:10,789 --> 01:03:09,359
but yeah

1632
01:03:12,549 --> 01:03:10,799
agents might still be biased against

1633
01:03:14,309 --> 01:03:12,559
that so it is very important to just be

1634
01:03:15,829 --> 01:03:14,319
aware of these biases

1635
01:03:17,750 --> 01:03:15,839
in astrobiology particularly also

1636
01:03:19,349 --> 01:03:17,760
because in astrobiology you often can't

1637
01:03:21,270 --> 01:03:19,359
take repeat experiments

1638
01:03:22,470 --> 01:03:21,280
for the same data point so

1639
01:03:24,150 --> 01:03:22,480
you can get entrenched and it's

1640
01:03:26,150 --> 01:03:24,160
difficult to recover from initial bad

1641
01:03:27,430 --> 01:03:26,160
information

1642
01:03:29,589 --> 01:03:27,440
okay so

1643
01:03:32,069 --> 01:03:29,599
just to conclude so there exists

1644
01:03:34,870 --> 01:03:32,079
evidence astrobiologists like many other

1645
01:03:36,630 --> 01:03:34,880
researchers exhibit my side bias and so

1646
01:03:37,670 --> 01:03:36,640
this has some undesirable effects

1647
01:03:39,750 --> 01:03:37,680
predominantly due to the

1648
01:03:43,190 --> 01:03:39,760
non-commutativity of evidence

1649
01:03:44,950 --> 01:03:43,200
so that puts a bias on early evidence

1650
01:03:46,549 --> 01:03:44,960
and can lead to a lag in theory and

1651
01:03:48,630 --> 01:03:46,559
belief change

1652
01:03:50,230 --> 01:03:48,640
so yeah so in summary agents should

1653
01:03:53,750 --> 01:03:50,240
strive to comply with the orthodox

1654
01:03:55,430 --> 01:03:53,760
bayesian statistics wherever possible

1655
01:04:00,230 --> 01:03:55,440
and yep that was my talk thank you very

1656
01:04:02,470 --> 01:04:01,270
all right

1657
01:04:04,789 --> 01:04:02,480
i think we have

1658
01:04:07,190 --> 01:04:04,799
we have time for one question for cat

1659
01:04:08,950 --> 01:04:07,200
because she was so uh

1660
01:04:11,029 --> 01:04:08,960
does anyone have a question and i'd

1661
01:04:12,390 --> 01:04:11,039
invite the the panel folks to come up

1662
01:04:17,910 --> 01:04:12,400
and and join us while we take that

1663
01:04:23,430 --> 01:04:21,109
hi uh cole mathis uh santa fe institute

1664
01:04:25,990 --> 01:04:23,440
and arizona state university um really

1665
01:04:28,230 --> 01:04:26,000
interesting talk i'm curious about the

1666
01:04:30,870 --> 01:04:28,240
analysis that the bane's paper did on

1667
01:04:33,029 --> 01:04:30,880
the sort of bayesian update and

1668
01:04:35,510 --> 01:04:33,039
if they were looking at the beliefs of

1669
01:04:36,470 --> 01:04:35,520
the community or the individuals

1670
01:04:37,910 --> 01:04:36,480
and if they were looking at the

1671
01:04:39,430 --> 01:04:37,920
community were they

1672
01:04:40,950 --> 01:04:39,440
averaging the beliefs of the community

1673
01:04:42,789 --> 01:04:40,960
you're sort of stacking or if there's a

1674
01:04:45,349 --> 01:04:42,799
difference between those i realize it's

1675
01:04:47,430 --> 01:04:45,359
not your paper so yeah

1676
01:04:49,109 --> 01:04:47,440
yeah so i believe i believe that they

1677
01:04:51,109 --> 01:04:49,119
took an average as the community of the

1678
01:04:52,710 --> 01:04:51,119
community as a whole which is you know

1679
01:04:54,630 --> 01:04:52,720
you can't then extend that to saying

1680
01:04:56,390 --> 01:04:54,640
individuals aren't being

1681
01:04:58,309 --> 01:04:56,400
bayesian so yeah

1682
01:04:59,589 --> 01:04:58,319
that is a good point

1683
01:05:17,190 --> 01:04:59,599
okay

1684
01:05:22,470 --> 01:05:19,910
so a special thank you to to all of our

1685
01:05:23,910 --> 01:05:22,480
speakers who spoke very very quickly

1686
01:05:25,270 --> 01:05:23,920
so that we would have a little bit time

1687
01:05:26,789 --> 01:05:25,280
for some more

1688
01:05:29,349 --> 01:05:26,799
open discussion

1689
01:05:32,230 --> 01:05:29,359
the the motivation for this session was

1690
01:05:35,270 --> 01:05:32,240
this idea that as astrobiologists we say

1691
01:05:37,430 --> 01:05:35,280
that we study the origin extent and

1692
01:05:39,109 --> 01:05:37,440
future of life in the universe

1693
01:05:41,109 --> 01:05:39,119
and what exactly does it mean that we

1694
01:05:43,349 --> 01:05:41,119
study the future of life in the universe

1695
01:05:45,270 --> 01:05:43,359
what is the methodology behind that how

1696
01:05:47,510 --> 01:05:45,280
might we do that well

1697
01:05:49,430 --> 01:05:47,520
and so i've asked a few folks who have

1698
01:05:51,670 --> 01:05:49,440
been thinking about this for quite some

1699
01:05:53,829 --> 01:05:51,680
time to give us brief reflections but

1700
01:05:56,549 --> 01:05:53,839
then i would like to to open things up

1701
01:05:57,670 --> 01:05:56,559
to a broader discussion so we have we

1702
01:05:58,710 --> 01:05:57,680
have met

1703
01:06:02,309 --> 01:05:58,720
uh

1704
01:06:04,470 --> 01:06:02,319
carlos murray skull already we also have

1705
01:06:07,750 --> 01:06:04,480
lynn rosschild who is

1706
01:06:10,789 --> 01:06:07,760
in synthetic biology at ames and rocco

1707
01:06:14,069 --> 01:06:10,799
manchinelli who is editor for the

1708
01:06:15,190 --> 01:06:14,079
international journal of astrobiology

1709
01:06:17,029 --> 01:06:15,200
both of whom have been thinking

1710
01:06:18,950 --> 01:06:17,039
particularly hard on this question so

1711
01:06:21,990 --> 01:06:18,960
i'm going to start by asking our panel

1712
01:06:24,309 --> 01:06:22,000
to just very briefly say

1713
01:06:28,150 --> 01:06:24,319
what interests them about this question

1714
01:06:30,870 --> 01:06:28,160
and one example of really good work that

1715
01:06:32,789 --> 01:06:30,880
has been done on this in the past and

1716
01:06:34,630 --> 01:06:32,799
catherine remotely is on our panel as

1717
01:06:36,549 --> 01:06:34,640
well so i'll prep her as soon as they're

1718
01:06:39,190 --> 01:06:36,559
done we'll go to her

1719
01:06:40,309 --> 01:06:39,200
carlos hi yeah so

1720
01:06:41,670 --> 01:06:40,319
um

1721
01:06:43,349 --> 01:06:41,680
it's interesting to talk about the

1722
01:06:45,190 --> 01:06:43,359
future because one of the things that

1723
01:06:47,910 --> 01:06:45,200
interests me um

1724
01:06:50,710 --> 01:06:47,920
is thinking about uh life

1725
01:06:53,750 --> 01:06:50,720
as we don't know it right so universally

1726
01:06:55,190 --> 01:06:53,760
um i'm interested in in life elsewhere

1727
01:06:57,750 --> 01:06:55,200
um not

1728
01:06:58,630 --> 01:06:57,760
at any particular instance so i want to

1729
01:07:00,390 --> 01:06:58,640
uh

1730
01:07:01,750 --> 01:07:00,400
think in terms of

1731
01:07:04,150 --> 01:07:01,760
um

1732
01:07:05,589 --> 01:07:04,160
the entire range the entire lifespan

1733
01:07:08,069 --> 01:07:05,599
right um

1734
01:07:10,789 --> 01:07:08,079
examples of things that are do that are

1735
01:07:13,589 --> 01:07:10,799
going on now that i find particularly uh

1736
01:07:16,069 --> 01:07:13,599
insightful and interesting are

1737
01:07:17,750 --> 01:07:16,079
the work that our panelists are are

1738
01:07:19,990 --> 01:07:17,760
doing of course and and the work

1739
01:07:20,789 --> 01:07:20,000
actually several people in the audience

1740
01:07:22,549 --> 01:07:20,799
uh

1741
01:07:24,549 --> 01:07:22,559
um

1742
01:07:30,630 --> 01:07:24,559
uh

1743
01:07:33,670 --> 01:07:30,640
um

1744
01:07:34,710 --> 01:07:33,680
i think uh there's lots of people that

1745
01:07:35,910 --> 01:07:34,720
are really

1746
01:07:39,670 --> 01:07:35,920
interested

1747
01:07:42,870 --> 01:07:39,680
in um not just where life goes from here

1748
01:07:45,750 --> 01:07:42,880
but where life would go from dif like

1749
01:07:47,589 --> 01:07:45,760
the the entire range of possible origins

1750
01:07:49,990 --> 01:07:47,599
so i'll just say that very quickly and

1751
01:07:51,270 --> 01:07:50,000
stuff it over to

1752
01:07:52,390 --> 01:07:51,280
uh lynn

1753
01:07:53,270 --> 01:07:52,400
thank you

1754
01:07:53,990 --> 01:07:53,280
um

1755
01:08:07,430 --> 01:07:54,000
i

1756
01:08:09,670 --> 01:08:07,440
we come from

1757
01:08:10,789 --> 01:08:09,680
and astrobiology i think at its core

1758
01:08:13,029 --> 01:08:10,799
really

1759
01:08:15,430 --> 01:08:13,039
it looks at that interaction between the

1760
01:08:17,590 --> 01:08:15,440
physical and the biological world and as

1761
01:08:20,070 --> 01:08:17,600
i was preparing last night i did

1762
01:08:22,630 --> 01:08:20,080
remember in one hard flash that i had

1763
01:08:25,829 --> 01:08:22,640
been in a documentary with a very

1764
01:08:27,910 --> 01:08:25,839
cheerful title death of the earth

1765
01:08:31,269 --> 01:08:27,920
it was naked science it premiered march

1766
01:08:33,829 --> 01:08:31,279
11 2009 i played myself

1767
01:08:35,510 --> 01:08:33,839
and um one of the reviewers said it was

1768
01:08:37,590 --> 01:08:35,520
a depressing program on the basis of

1769
01:08:39,349 --> 01:08:37,600
which i firmly decided not to live

1770
01:08:41,669 --> 01:08:39,359
another few billion years as it's not

1771
01:08:43,430 --> 01:08:41,679
worth it and that was my father so they

1772
01:08:45,269 --> 01:08:43,440
got worse from there

1773
01:08:47,349 --> 01:08:45,279
anyway i cannot tell you how depressing

1774
01:08:49,110 --> 01:08:47,359
it is to have very cheerful people

1775
01:08:51,430 --> 01:08:49,120
calling from london at seven in the

1776
01:08:53,030 --> 01:08:51,440
morning saying exactly what year is all

1777
01:08:55,269 --> 01:08:53,040
life on earth going extinct dr

1778
01:08:57,749 --> 01:08:55,279
rothschild so let me give you just

1779
01:09:00,470 --> 01:08:57,759
quickly the the take home message there

1780
01:09:01,990 --> 01:09:00,480
and then end on an optimistic note

1781
01:09:03,910 --> 01:09:02,000
and that is i've always believed that

1782
01:09:06,229 --> 01:09:03,920
astrobiology really isn't the next five

1783
01:09:07,749 --> 01:09:06,239
or ten years it's a much longer time

1784
01:09:10,229 --> 01:09:07,759
scale because we are looking at

1785
01:09:12,229 --> 01:09:10,239
planetary phenomena that being said

1786
01:09:14,550 --> 01:09:12,239
climate change is occurring much more

1787
01:09:16,309 --> 01:09:14,560
quickly than we would have expected

1788
01:09:17,669 --> 01:09:16,319
and this involves not only changes in

1789
01:09:19,829 --> 01:09:17,679
the atmosphere and the temperature and

1790
01:09:22,470 --> 01:09:19,839
the rainfall but also ocean circulation

1791
01:09:25,189 --> 01:09:22,480
and so on we can always have your odd

1792
01:09:28,390 --> 01:09:25,199
event like a supernova or an impactor

1793
01:09:30,149 --> 01:09:28,400
showing up that we hadn't expected um we

1794
01:09:31,749 --> 01:09:30,159
could have things like life detection

1795
01:09:33,349 --> 01:09:31,759
we've got the robotics we've got other

1796
01:09:36,149 --> 01:09:33,359
you know sorts of things happening but

1797
01:09:39,430 --> 01:09:36,159
we have planetary factors even within

1798
01:09:42,550 --> 01:09:39,440
the next um thousand five thousand years

1799
01:09:44,630 --> 01:09:42,560
then you start to move to the 250 to 350

1800
01:09:46,709 --> 01:09:44,640
million year time zone and you're

1801
01:09:47,749 --> 01:09:46,719
starting to look at new super continents

1802
01:09:49,430 --> 01:09:47,759
which

1803
01:09:51,030 --> 01:09:49,440
changes climate dramatically and then a

1804
01:09:53,110 --> 01:09:51,040
breakup this you know these things

1805
01:09:55,189 --> 01:09:53,120
happen periodically

1806
01:09:56,709 --> 01:09:55,199
600 million years you're now starting to

1807
01:09:59,990 --> 01:09:56,719
talk about not having enough carbon

1808
01:10:02,229 --> 01:10:00,000
dioxide for c3 photosynthesis by a

1809
01:10:04,310 --> 01:10:02,239
billion years solar luminosity is about

1810
01:10:05,990 --> 01:10:04,320
10 percent higher the atmosphere becomes

1811
01:10:08,390 --> 01:10:06,000
a moist greenhouse

1812
01:10:10,149 --> 01:10:08,400
and then you get the big event of your

1813
01:10:12,630 --> 01:10:10,159
biggest one of them all 1.5 billion

1814
01:10:14,070 --> 01:10:12,640
years death of all life on planet earth

1815
01:10:15,590 --> 01:10:14,080
and so you're not really going to care

1816
01:10:18,390 --> 01:10:15,600
that in two to three billion years

1817
01:10:21,189 --> 01:10:18,400
earth's magnetic dynamo may cause the um

1818
01:10:23,590 --> 01:10:21,199
the speeding loss of volatiles by two to

1819
01:10:24,550 --> 01:10:23,600
five million year billion years excuse

1820
01:10:26,470 --> 01:10:24,560
me the

1821
01:10:28,149 --> 01:10:26,480
moon is is continuing to go away from

1822
01:10:30,550 --> 01:10:28,159
the earth at about four centimeters a

1823
01:10:31,990 --> 01:10:30,560
year just slightly less may reach a

1824
01:10:34,070 --> 01:10:32,000
point where we've ended up with a more

1825
01:10:35,510 --> 01:10:34,080
chaotic obliquity but it's not going to

1826
01:10:37,910 --> 01:10:35,520
matter because life will already be

1827
01:10:40,149 --> 01:10:37,920
extinct and by 4 billion years earth

1828
01:10:42,070 --> 01:10:40,159
will be more extreme than present-day

1829
01:10:43,110 --> 01:10:42,080
venus which is a hellish place to begin

1830
01:10:45,990 --> 01:10:43,120
with

1831
01:10:48,070 --> 01:10:46,000
by 7.5 billion years the earth may well

1832
01:10:50,070 --> 01:10:48,080
be absorbed by the sun but it's already

1833
01:10:51,990 --> 01:10:50,080
going to be a red giant and before that

1834
01:10:53,590 --> 01:10:52,000
in about 5 billion years the andromeda

1835
01:10:55,510 --> 01:10:53,600
the milky way galaxies will start to

1836
01:10:57,910 --> 01:10:55,520
collide into these were my new

1837
01:11:01,350 --> 01:10:57,920
vocabulary words last night into the

1838
01:11:02,630 --> 01:11:01,360
milk omeda or milk dromeda they will it

1839
01:11:05,350 --> 01:11:02,640
will be called

1840
01:11:06,950 --> 01:11:05,360
but um at the risk of having the most

1841
01:11:09,430 --> 01:11:06,960
depressing talk that has ever been had

1842
01:11:11,669 --> 01:11:09,440
in apps icon i want to end on a positive

1843
01:11:13,430 --> 01:11:11,679
note and that is to go back to my

1844
01:11:15,830 --> 01:11:13,440
original point and that is that the

1845
01:11:18,229 --> 01:11:15,840
future of life is to some extent the

1846
01:11:20,630 --> 01:11:18,239
most important part of astrobiology

1847
01:11:22,709 --> 01:11:20,640
because we are here we care and we can

1848
01:11:25,189 --> 01:11:22,719
actually change this and this is going

1849
01:11:27,030 --> 01:11:25,199
to sound crazy but i actually don't

1850
01:11:28,470 --> 01:11:27,040
believe that any human is going to want

1851
01:11:30,830 --> 01:11:28,480
to be the last one to turn off the

1852
01:11:33,030 --> 01:11:30,840
lights that evolution works on

1853
01:11:35,030 --> 01:11:33,040
self-preservation so

1854
01:11:37,030 --> 01:11:35,040
um there's certainly the possibility of

1855
01:11:38,790 --> 01:11:37,040
going forward to other planets i

1856
01:11:40,790 --> 01:11:38,800
actually personally believe that we're

1857
01:11:43,110 --> 01:11:40,800
going to start to shift planet earth

1858
01:11:45,030 --> 01:11:43,120
maybe we'll have the technology to reset

1859
01:11:46,870 --> 01:11:45,040
the sun but maybe we'll just end up with

1860
01:11:49,910 --> 01:11:46,880
spaceship earth maybe we'll be picking

1861
01:11:52,070 --> 01:11:49,920
up our water from europa and

1862
01:11:54,070 --> 01:11:52,080
more organic carbon maybe some from

1863
01:11:56,070 --> 01:11:54,080
ceres on the way out to europa and then

1864
01:11:58,550 --> 01:11:56,080
on to enceladus and maybe we hang out

1865
01:12:00,950 --> 01:11:58,560
there until we reach the red giant phase

1866
01:12:03,189 --> 01:12:00,960
and so on and so forth so that we don't

1867
01:12:05,590 --> 01:12:03,199
um even have to worry ultimately if we

1868
01:12:07,189 --> 01:12:05,600
have the technology about the end of the

1869
01:12:09,590 --> 01:12:07,199
universe which will be either the big

1870
01:12:11,590 --> 01:12:09,600
crunch or the big riff depending upon

1871
01:12:13,669 --> 01:12:11,600
which um category you're in so i do

1872
01:12:15,910 --> 01:12:13,679
believe that we're sort of like a

1873
01:12:16,709 --> 01:12:15,920
christmas carol where um stooge at the

1874
01:12:19,270 --> 01:12:16,719
end

1875
01:12:21,590 --> 01:12:19,280
sees the future and he realizes he can

1876
01:12:22,790 --> 01:12:21,600
do something about it and people ask me

1877
01:12:24,950 --> 01:12:22,800
well how do you plan to do this

1878
01:12:28,070 --> 01:12:24,960
technologically and my answer is i can't

1879
01:12:30,950 --> 01:12:28,080
solve all the problems for mankind but i

1880
01:12:32,630 --> 01:12:30,960
do believe firmly that we will do

1881
01:12:34,790 --> 01:12:32,640
everything we can for technological

1882
01:12:36,229 --> 01:12:34,800
solutions because it's just not in life

1883
01:12:38,310 --> 01:12:36,239
as a whole and certainly not in

1884
01:12:42,470 --> 01:12:38,320
humankind to be the one to turn out the

1885
01:12:42,480 --> 01:12:45,350
thank you

1886
01:12:50,950 --> 01:12:48,229
well i'm gonna take

1887
01:12:54,229 --> 01:12:50,960
not necessarily a happier turn uh from

1888
01:12:57,030 --> 01:12:54,239
what lynn said but a shorter term

1889
01:12:59,669 --> 01:12:57,040
sort of time on what lynn did say and

1890
01:13:02,310 --> 01:12:59,679
that is i think that

1891
01:13:05,430 --> 01:13:02,320
the future of life has been given short

1892
01:13:07,430 --> 01:13:05,440
shrift in the astrobiology community we

1893
01:13:09,910 --> 01:13:07,440
don't hear much about it especially the

1894
01:13:12,070 --> 01:13:09,920
future of life on here on earth we hear

1895
01:13:13,830 --> 01:13:12,080
about okay we're going to go to mars or

1896
01:13:16,310 --> 01:13:13,840
we're going to make settlements out

1897
01:13:18,950 --> 01:13:16,320
there sometime in the future

1898
01:13:20,950 --> 01:13:18,960
but what about today what about what's

1899
01:13:23,990 --> 01:13:20,960
happening today in the future of life

1900
01:13:25,790 --> 01:13:24,000
today i think we can all say all right

1901
01:13:28,070 --> 01:13:25,800
that we all know that what is

1902
01:13:29,030 --> 01:13:28,080
astrobiology astrobiology brings

1903
01:13:30,070 --> 01:13:29,040
together

1904
01:13:32,550 --> 01:13:30,080
the

1905
01:13:35,750 --> 01:13:32,560
various different different disciplines

1906
01:13:37,830 --> 01:13:35,760
and we date it we gather data and i

1907
01:13:40,630 --> 01:13:37,840
think one of the things that is critical

1908
01:13:42,630 --> 01:13:40,640
to astrobiology and understanding

1909
01:13:44,830 --> 01:13:42,640
astrobiology in life is that

1910
01:13:47,590 --> 01:13:44,840
astrobiology is

1911
01:13:50,790 --> 01:13:47,600
really inextricable the study of

1912
01:13:52,950 --> 01:13:50,800
astrobiology and life is

1913
01:13:54,790 --> 01:13:52,960
the study of the environment and life

1914
01:13:56,870 --> 01:13:54,800
together in other words

1915
01:13:58,709 --> 01:13:56,880
life and its evolution

1916
01:14:01,590 --> 01:13:58,719
and changing environments are

1917
01:14:04,070 --> 01:14:01,600
inextricably entwined together

1918
01:14:06,310 --> 01:14:04,080
all right so since we know that

1919
01:14:08,229 --> 01:14:06,320
then what what can we do to really study

1920
01:14:10,630 --> 01:14:08,239
it and we haven't really done much to

1921
01:14:12,070 --> 01:14:10,640
study it all together and i think right

1922
01:14:14,790 --> 01:14:12,080
now

1923
01:14:17,189 --> 01:14:14,800
without being too depressing is a great

1924
01:14:19,430 --> 01:14:17,199
time in which to actually study this

1925
01:14:20,390 --> 01:14:19,440
together because right now we are going

1926
01:14:23,110 --> 01:14:20,400
through

1927
01:14:24,870 --> 01:14:23,120
rapid global climate change i think we

1928
01:14:28,470 --> 01:14:24,880
can all agree upon that

1929
01:14:31,830 --> 01:14:28,480
and so if we have this rapid global

1930
01:14:33,189 --> 01:14:31,840
climate change we have several fields

1931
01:14:35,590 --> 01:14:33,199
of

1932
01:14:37,830 --> 01:14:35,600
biological systems that we're studying

1933
01:14:40,310 --> 01:14:37,840
that look at what's going on with

1934
01:14:43,750 --> 01:14:40,320
species species extinction changes in

1935
01:14:45,830 --> 01:14:43,760
habitats changes in niches through time

1936
01:14:47,750 --> 01:14:45,840
that one of the things we should do

1937
01:14:49,510 --> 01:14:47,760
and we were asked actually to say what

1938
01:14:51,270 --> 01:14:49,520
should we do about studying the future

1939
01:14:53,669 --> 01:14:51,280
of life one of the things we should do

1940
01:14:56,790 --> 01:14:53,679
is we should bring together global

1941
01:14:59,590 --> 01:14:56,800
climate change modeling and the modeling

1942
01:15:01,990 --> 01:14:59,600
that's done at the ecological ecosystem

1943
01:15:04,630 --> 01:15:02,000
level so that we can un really

1944
01:15:05,430 --> 01:15:04,640
understand better what's going on

1945
01:15:08,070 --> 01:15:05,440
with

1946
01:15:10,950 --> 01:15:08,080
how the environment and life is changing

1947
01:15:13,270 --> 01:15:10,960
for the future so it involves not just

1948
01:15:15,830 --> 01:15:13,280
modeling but it involves gathering real

1949
01:15:17,990 --> 01:15:15,840
data to feed into those models so we

1950
01:15:20,950 --> 01:15:18,000
have some idea not only what's going on

1951
01:15:23,590 --> 01:15:20,960
in the future of what we what we may be

1952
01:15:24,950 --> 01:15:23,600
able to do to actually take control of

1953
01:15:27,990 --> 01:15:24,960
it again

1954
01:15:29,430 --> 01:15:28,000
i once once heard a talk

1955
01:15:31,110 --> 01:15:29,440
several years ago

1956
01:15:32,149 --> 01:15:31,120
that someone said

1957
01:15:36,310 --> 01:15:32,159
uh

1958
01:15:37,189 --> 01:15:36,320
the life on earth began as a microbial

1959
01:15:39,910 --> 01:15:37,199
world

1960
01:15:42,229 --> 01:15:39,920
we have now gone through

1961
01:15:45,270 --> 01:15:42,239
several changes and evolutionary

1962
01:15:47,350 --> 01:15:45,280
processes where we have multicellularity

1963
01:15:50,550 --> 01:15:47,360
we have a diversity of life that's

1964
01:15:52,950 --> 01:15:50,560
almost unbelievable however

1965
01:15:55,030 --> 01:15:52,960
with global climate change

1966
01:15:57,510 --> 01:15:55,040
and the changing environment and the

1967
01:16:00,709 --> 01:15:57,520
changing solar system we are destined to

1968
01:16:03,189 --> 01:16:00,719
become a microbial world again

1969
01:16:05,669 --> 01:16:03,199
if you look at what lynn said and we do

1970
01:16:08,229 --> 01:16:05,679
take some of these changes and we do

1971
01:16:09,270 --> 01:16:08,239
something about them maybe we will stop

1972
01:16:12,390 --> 01:16:09,280
becoming

1973
01:16:14,870 --> 01:16:12,400
a microbial world again

1974
01:16:17,510 --> 01:16:14,880
the other thing i would say is that

1975
01:16:19,189 --> 01:16:17,520
is that i think now

1976
01:16:21,750 --> 01:16:19,199
now is the time

1977
01:16:24,229 --> 01:16:21,760
for us to really understand

1978
01:16:26,790 --> 01:16:24,239
what happens and we can take this data

1979
01:16:29,669 --> 01:16:26,800
with global climate change and modeling

1980
01:16:31,270 --> 01:16:29,679
of ecosystems and bring it together to

1981
01:16:34,229 --> 01:16:31,280
really

1982
01:16:35,669 --> 01:16:34,239
set a course and a path that will not

1983
01:16:37,430 --> 01:16:35,679
lead to

1984
01:16:39,510 --> 01:16:37,440
our extinction

1985
01:16:41,750 --> 01:16:39,520
with that i will end

1986
01:16:43,750 --> 01:16:41,760
excellent and a couple quick words from

1987
01:16:46,229 --> 01:16:43,760
catherine uh and then we'll we'll open

1988
01:16:49,430 --> 01:16:46,239
things up

1989
01:16:51,510 --> 01:16:49,440
hey yeah i will keep it quick um

1990
01:16:53,990 --> 01:16:51,520
so yeah i'm not worried about the 1.5

1991
01:16:55,350 --> 01:16:54,000
million your horizon or the milk drama

1992
01:16:57,030 --> 01:16:55,360
personally just because my brain is not

1993
01:16:59,030 --> 01:16:57,040
large enough um lynn's brain is way

1994
01:17:01,750 --> 01:16:59,040
bigger than mine um i do worry about the

1995
01:17:03,510 --> 01:17:01,760
near future issues um like rosabo was

1996
01:17:05,990 --> 01:17:03,520
just discussing and of course um the

1997
01:17:07,669 --> 01:17:06,000
importance of adaptation and resilience

1998
01:17:10,070 --> 01:17:07,679
what i there's kind of one thing that i

1999
01:17:12,870 --> 01:17:10,080
can add a little bit um to what raka was

2000
01:17:15,110 --> 01:17:12,880
just saying with which i firmly agree

2001
01:17:16,390 --> 01:17:15,120
i'm very concerned about biodiversity

2002
01:17:18,950 --> 01:17:16,400
collapse because that's something that

2003
01:17:20,470 --> 01:17:18,960
we haven't seen before on the scale that

2004
01:17:22,229 --> 01:17:20,480
we are

2005
01:17:24,390 --> 01:17:22,239
seeing and but i do take some

2006
01:17:26,790 --> 01:17:24,400
consolation in the archaeological work

2007
01:17:29,590 --> 01:17:26,800
which shows humanity's long history of

2008
01:17:32,390 --> 01:17:29,600
resilience and adaptation to local

2009
01:17:34,310 --> 01:17:32,400
um climate catastrophes and

2010
01:17:36,709 --> 01:17:34,320
so i think you know we we do have this

2011
01:17:39,510 --> 01:17:36,719
this capacity within us and i think that

2012
01:17:41,990 --> 01:17:39,520
it um is is some consolation whether or

2013
01:17:43,669 --> 01:17:42,000
not um we're able to coordinate on the

2014
01:17:45,750 --> 01:17:43,679
kind of global scales that are are

2015
01:17:46,630 --> 01:17:45,760
necessary you know remains to be seen

2016
01:17:48,310 --> 01:17:46,640
but

2017
01:17:50,229 --> 01:17:48,320
um

2018
01:17:51,990 --> 01:17:50,239
anyway interest interesting days ahead

2019
01:17:54,310 --> 01:17:52,000
one thing i i would just add though to

2020
01:17:57,430 --> 01:17:54,320
that is that i'm i'm not sanguine about

2021
01:18:00,390 --> 01:17:57,440
um the kind of planet b plans or

2022
01:18:03,430 --> 01:18:00,400
or thought uh stream that that runs

2023
01:18:04,470 --> 01:18:03,440
through some um space-based

2024
01:18:07,430 --> 01:18:04,480
um

2025
01:18:09,669 --> 01:18:07,440
biology work it's uh it's it's a source

2026
01:18:11,750 --> 01:18:09,679
of some concern to me i'm not sure that

2027
01:18:14,310 --> 01:18:11,760
um you know the idea of a backup plan

2028
01:18:17,270 --> 01:18:14,320
with humans off world is um

2029
01:18:19,750 --> 01:18:17,280
particularly viable and uh i worry about

2030
01:18:21,669 --> 01:18:19,760
it diverting attention away from uh the

2031
01:18:22,950 --> 01:18:21,679
approximate concerns right now um i

2032
01:18:24,790 --> 01:18:22,960
would love to hear a couple things from

2033
01:18:26,550 --> 01:18:24,800
lucas if he has anything to add as well

2034
01:18:27,590 --> 01:18:26,560
as from before

2035
01:18:28,470 --> 01:18:27,600
thank you

2036
01:18:31,350 --> 01:18:28,480
um

2037
01:18:32,790 --> 01:18:31,360
so i i think just sort of to to wrap up

2038
01:18:34,550 --> 01:18:32,800
what people have said

2039
01:18:36,709 --> 01:18:34,560
there's a whole lot of passion about

2040
01:18:38,229 --> 01:18:36,719
what we should do in this area

2041
01:18:40,310 --> 01:18:38,239
and hopefully

2042
01:18:42,630 --> 01:18:40,320
cat's talk has convinced us all that the

2043
01:18:44,790 --> 01:18:42,640
more passionate we feel about something

2044
01:18:45,830 --> 01:18:44,800
the harder it is for us to be rational

2045
01:18:48,550 --> 01:18:45,840
about it

2046
01:18:51,830 --> 01:18:48,560
and i think that as astrobiologists as

2047
01:18:53,910 --> 01:18:51,840
people who really are committed to this

2048
01:18:56,790 --> 01:18:53,920
study of what it means to be alive at

2049
01:18:59,030 --> 01:18:56,800
the intersection of chemistry biology

2050
01:19:01,910 --> 01:18:59,040
geology astronomy

2051
01:19:03,910 --> 01:19:01,920
including the uh the natural so

2052
01:19:06,390 --> 01:19:03,920
including the social sciences and the

2053
01:19:08,870 --> 01:19:06,400
humanities inputs as well

2054
01:19:10,950 --> 01:19:08,880
that we are in a unique place to speak

2055
01:19:13,350 --> 01:19:10,960
on this question of what we can do now

2056
01:19:15,270 --> 01:19:13,360
and exactly the nature of the problem

2057
01:19:17,350 --> 01:19:15,280
the extent to which we can do that

2058
01:19:19,990 --> 01:19:17,360
dispassionately i think will be

2059
01:19:23,189 --> 01:19:20,000
reflected in the extent to which we are

2060
01:19:24,870 --> 01:19:23,199
trusted by the general public to do so

2061
01:19:26,310 --> 01:19:24,880
and so i think that we have a particular

2062
01:19:28,070 --> 01:19:26,320
obligation

2063
01:19:29,750 --> 01:19:28,080
to tie together

2064
01:19:31,590 --> 01:19:29,760
really the the science and other

2065
01:19:33,590 --> 01:19:31,600
academic insights we can bring to the

2066
01:19:35,430 --> 01:19:33,600
problem so the reason that that i'm

2067
01:19:38,709 --> 01:19:35,440
really committed to this is i think that

2068
01:19:42,070 --> 01:19:38,719
that we have not only the the talents

2069
01:19:43,590 --> 01:19:42,080
but the the platform to speak publicly

2070
01:19:46,790 --> 01:19:43,600
and with that comes a great

2071
01:19:48,790 --> 01:19:46,800
responsibility to be mindful of exactly

2072
01:19:50,550 --> 01:19:48,800
where information is coming from when

2073
01:19:52,470 --> 01:19:50,560
it's coming from the social sciences

2074
01:19:54,550 --> 01:19:52,480
when it is being driven by the astronomy

2075
01:19:55,990 --> 01:19:54,560
when it's being driven by the biology

2076
01:19:59,750 --> 01:19:56,000
and sometimes when it's been being

2077
01:20:00,790 --> 01:19:59,760
driven by our own personal biases

2078
01:20:02,070 --> 01:20:00,800
so

2079
01:20:04,229 --> 01:20:02,080
i am sure there are people in the

2080
01:20:06,790 --> 01:20:04,239
audience who would love to make a

2081
01:20:09,189 --> 01:20:06,800
comment uh we have a short period of

2082
01:20:11,510 --> 01:20:09,199
time so please uh connect with people

2083
01:20:13,669 --> 01:20:11,520
around you and try and make uh a brief

2084
01:20:16,390 --> 01:20:13,679
comment if you can so we can get input

2085
01:20:19,910 --> 01:20:16,400
from a lot of people please

2086
01:20:23,990 --> 01:20:21,910
and that is there is nothing that we

2087
01:20:25,990 --> 01:20:24,000
should be more passionate about than the

2088
01:20:28,070 --> 01:20:26,000
future of humanity

2089
01:20:29,990 --> 01:20:28,080
um we should be passionate about a field

2090
01:20:34,229 --> 01:20:30,000
it's the individual solutions that we

2091
01:20:36,149 --> 01:20:34,239
need to be rational true i totally agree

2092
01:20:37,990 --> 01:20:36,159
please hi michael schaible georgia

2093
01:20:40,470 --> 01:20:38,000
institute technology the very

2094
01:20:41,910 --> 01:20:40,480
interesting uh talks and and statements

2095
01:20:42,790 --> 01:20:41,920
by all of you uh i was wondering if you

2096
01:20:44,310 --> 01:20:42,800
could

2097
01:20:47,149 --> 01:20:44,320
briefly

2098
01:20:49,510 --> 01:20:47,159
comment on what you think is the role of

2099
01:20:53,669 --> 01:20:49,520
astrobiology in moving forward

2100
01:20:55,270 --> 01:20:53,679
anti-colonial and inclusive exploration

2101
01:21:01,350 --> 01:20:55,280
that's probably

2102
01:21:04,870 --> 01:21:03,590
um

2103
01:21:06,550 --> 01:21:04,880
it's

2104
01:21:08,870 --> 01:21:06,560
that's an interesting one for which i

2105
01:21:12,470 --> 01:21:08,880
was not prepared um

2106
01:21:16,229 --> 01:21:12,480
i would say i mean any science has that

2107
01:21:19,510 --> 01:21:16,239
kind of capacity to um to contribute to

2108
01:21:21,510 --> 01:21:19,520
uh the colonial initiatives and and to

2109
01:21:23,510 --> 01:21:21,520
and to inclusion it's a lot of it is as

2110
01:21:27,189 --> 01:21:23,520
you know is is just in terms of how do

2111
01:21:28,550 --> 01:21:27,199
you practice um your own science

2112
01:21:30,709 --> 01:21:28,560
how do you

2113
01:21:33,189 --> 01:21:30,719
interact with those directly around you

2114
01:21:35,910 --> 01:21:33,199
i guess one thing i would say and i

2115
01:21:37,270 --> 01:21:35,920
alluded to this a little bit is that

2116
01:21:38,950 --> 01:21:37,280
in terms of our

2117
01:21:40,390 --> 01:21:38,960
kind of big

2118
01:21:41,430 --> 01:21:40,400
narratives

2119
01:21:43,350 --> 01:21:41,440
about

2120
01:21:45,110 --> 01:21:43,360
um because again astrobiology does quite

2121
01:21:47,270 --> 01:21:45,120
often invoke sort of you know the big

2122
01:21:49,030 --> 01:21:47,280
story of humanity on earth and our

2123
01:21:51,430 --> 01:21:49,040
social evolution and things like that i

2124
01:21:52,629 --> 01:21:51,440
think you know if we can be really

2125
01:21:54,709 --> 01:21:52,639
mindful

2126
01:21:56,550 --> 01:21:54,719
that in the standard versions most of

2127
01:21:57,350 --> 01:21:56,560
humanity is left out

2128
01:22:00,629 --> 01:21:57,360
um

2129
01:22:08,550 --> 01:22:00,639
or

2130
01:22:10,870 --> 01:22:08,560
are deeply colonial and really not very

2131
01:22:12,950 --> 01:22:10,880
inclusive and that we can do better so i

2132
01:22:14,629 --> 01:22:12,960
think that that's one way um you know

2133
01:22:16,870 --> 01:22:14,639
obviously again as an anthropologist i

2134
01:22:20,629 --> 01:22:16,880
would say that that we could do a better

2135
01:22:23,510 --> 01:22:20,639
job of weaving these bigger more

2136
01:22:25,270 --> 01:22:23,520
inclusive pictures into our ideas of you

2137
01:22:27,830 --> 01:22:25,280
know who humans are where we've been and

2138
01:22:29,830 --> 01:22:27,840
where we're going that's um that's kind

2139
01:22:32,149 --> 01:22:29,840
of the two suggestions that i have also

2140
01:22:34,790 --> 01:22:32,159
i'll stop now all right great question i

2141
01:22:36,790 --> 01:22:34,800
think if anyone can have the global

2142
01:22:39,350 --> 01:22:36,800
perspective and from deep time it should

2143
01:22:41,110 --> 01:22:39,360
be us so uh so hopefully that's what we

2144
01:22:42,870 --> 01:22:41,120
can find and that's one of the reasons

2145
01:22:45,030 --> 01:22:42,880
that i care so deeply about these ascent

2146
01:22:48,550 --> 01:22:45,040
narratives which don't really match up

2147
01:22:49,830 --> 01:22:48,560
with the global perspective uh lynn

2148
01:22:51,830 --> 01:22:49,840
what i'd like to do is tie that in with

2149
01:22:54,550 --> 01:22:51,840
rosalva and chris mckay's talk earlier

2150
01:22:56,629 --> 01:22:54,560
that the the most extreme environments

2151
01:22:58,310 --> 01:22:56,639
on the earth today are the ones where it

2152
01:23:00,390 --> 01:22:58,320
tends to be the most marginalized people

2153
01:23:03,350 --> 01:23:00,400
but there are canaries for the future

2154
01:23:04,950 --> 01:23:03,360
and so um in our own work you know doing

2155
01:23:06,550 --> 01:23:04,960
field work in in places like the rift

2156
01:23:08,310 --> 01:23:06,560
valley in africa and so we've tried to

2157
01:23:10,310 --> 01:23:08,320
bring in the local communities because

2158
01:23:12,550 --> 01:23:10,320
they're the ones that have their finger

2159
01:23:13,430 --> 01:23:12,560
on the pulse of the change

2160
01:23:15,750 --> 01:23:13,440
please

2161
01:23:18,149 --> 01:23:15,760
thank you for the inspiring panel and so

2162
01:23:19,750 --> 01:23:18,159
in 1937 rene descartes said i think

2163
01:23:23,270 --> 01:23:19,760
therefore i

2164
01:23:25,510 --> 01:23:23,280
and in the 1880s uh auguste rodon the

2165
01:23:27,030 --> 01:23:25,520
artist from france created a sculpture

2166
01:23:29,030 --> 01:23:27,040
called the thinker you might have seen

2167
01:23:30,950 --> 01:23:29,040
that very very famous worldwide so i'm

2168
01:23:32,870 --> 01:23:30,960
curious with this interdisciplinary

2169
01:23:36,310 --> 01:23:32,880
field here

2170
01:23:39,590 --> 01:23:36,320
instead of looking at rocks and cells

2171
01:23:41,430 --> 01:23:39,600
and enzymes to what extent are we

2172
01:23:42,709 --> 01:23:41,440
challenging ourselves to examine

2173
01:23:44,870 --> 01:23:42,719
ourselves

2174
01:23:46,229 --> 01:23:44,880
and how we philosophically think about

2175
01:23:48,390 --> 01:23:46,239
our feet on the ground in the

2176
01:23:51,350 --> 01:23:48,400
environment our soma how we think about

2177
01:23:53,189 --> 01:23:51,360
who we are not only philosophically but

2178
01:23:54,550 --> 01:23:53,199
psychophysiology

2179
01:23:56,390 --> 01:23:54,560
okay because if we're going to inquire

2180
01:23:58,470 --> 01:23:56,400
about what is earth out in the universe

2181
01:24:00,790 --> 01:23:58,480
or in other parts of the planet

2182
01:24:01,750 --> 01:24:00,800
how are we coming from where we are at

2183
01:24:03,750 --> 01:24:01,760
itself

2184
01:24:05,270 --> 01:24:03,760
so i'm curious for the panel but anyone

2185
01:24:06,950 --> 01:24:05,280
else in the room who's asking questions

2186
01:24:09,669 --> 01:24:06,960
like that i'm curious about that

2187
01:24:12,189 --> 01:24:09,679
um i i'm going to say come play with us

2188
01:24:14,870 --> 01:24:12,199
at social and conceptual issues in

2189
01:24:16,950 --> 01:24:14,880
astrobiology uh because we are all about

2190
01:24:18,310 --> 01:24:16,960
that question and i think catherine and

2191
01:24:20,310 --> 01:24:18,320
i would would both

2192
01:24:21,830 --> 01:24:20,320
love to talk with you more about that

2193
01:24:24,550 --> 01:24:21,840
it's a great question that has

2194
01:24:28,830 --> 01:24:24,560
biological uh components that aren't

2195
01:24:33,030 --> 01:24:28,840
differentiable uh from the psychological

2196
01:24:34,950 --> 01:24:33,040
components please hi tessa fisher asu um

2197
01:24:36,390 --> 01:24:34,960
so michael wong already touched on this

2198
01:24:38,070 --> 01:24:36,400
a bit but

2199
01:24:39,430 --> 01:24:38,080
it something i've always noticed

2200
01:24:41,189 --> 01:24:39,440
especially someone coming from

2201
01:24:43,350 --> 01:24:41,199
background oncology is there's an

2202
01:24:45,830 --> 01:24:43,360
assumption in astrobiology that

2203
01:24:48,229 --> 01:24:45,840
civilizations are growth oriented

2204
01:24:50,550 --> 01:24:48,239
um and i don't know we can make that

2205
01:24:52,149 --> 01:24:50,560
assumption because well even in our own

2206
01:24:54,149 --> 01:24:52,159
human history a lot of cultures have

2207
01:24:55,750 --> 01:24:54,159
been growth oriented many have not and

2208
01:24:58,149 --> 01:24:55,760
in particular the

2209
01:25:00,470 --> 01:24:58,159
current setup of our economy which in

2210
01:25:02,149 --> 01:25:00,480
which growth is integral is a very

2211
01:25:03,830 --> 01:25:02,159
recent development only within the last

2212
01:25:06,149 --> 01:25:03,840
few hundred years

2213
01:25:07,030 --> 01:25:06,159
so can we really

2214
01:25:08,629 --> 01:25:07,040
you know

2215
01:25:11,350 --> 01:25:08,639
should we be

2216
01:25:12,870 --> 01:25:11,360
using that as our guiding assumption

2217
01:25:14,950 --> 01:25:12,880
especially if we're looking about deep

2218
01:25:16,390 --> 01:25:14,960
time you know i don't want to say we

2219
01:25:18,229 --> 01:25:16,400
should be eating the rich but we should

2220
01:25:20,950 --> 01:25:18,239
be eating the rich

2221
01:25:23,510 --> 01:25:20,960
we we tend to extrapolate from 1850 to

2222
01:25:25,270 --> 01:25:23,520
1950 growth patterns

2223
01:25:27,189 --> 01:25:25,280
infinitely into the future which is very

2224
01:25:28,950 --> 01:25:27,199
interesting choice why we picked that

2225
01:25:31,189 --> 01:25:28,960
period but that's the period of

2226
01:25:33,189 --> 01:25:31,199
exponential growth that tends to be

2227
01:25:35,270 --> 01:25:33,199
projected please

2228
01:25:36,950 --> 01:25:35,280
yeah hi jacob hugh mr blue marble space

2229
01:25:39,030 --> 01:25:36,960
so i would not be doing my job if i

2230
01:25:41,270 --> 01:25:39,040
didn't bring up techno signatures here

2231
01:25:44,149 --> 01:25:41,280
i'm fully sympathetic to this idea that

2232
01:25:45,910 --> 01:25:44,159
that the future of earth is one of the

2233
01:25:48,550 --> 01:25:45,920
understudied of the three goals of

2234
01:25:50,950 --> 01:25:48,560
astrobiology and i'm encouraged that

2235
01:25:52,709 --> 01:25:50,960
nasa in particular and other agencies

2236
01:25:54,870 --> 01:25:52,719
are taking and private agencies are

2237
01:25:57,030 --> 01:25:54,880
taking the search for techno signatures

2238
01:25:59,990 --> 01:25:57,040
seriously and that's a great

2239
01:26:02,229 --> 01:26:00,000
intersection for the future of life and

2240
01:26:04,310 --> 01:26:02,239
the future of life on earth and in the

2241
01:26:05,669 --> 01:26:04,320
search for life elsewhere you know a lot

2242
01:26:08,310 --> 01:26:05,679
of study people have been doing this

2243
01:26:09,669 --> 01:26:08,320
implicitly you project from earth today

2244
01:26:11,110 --> 01:26:09,679
as to what kind of things might be

2245
01:26:13,189 --> 01:26:11,120
detectable for the future so i think

2246
01:26:14,790 --> 01:26:13,199
just keep thinking about this because

2247
01:26:16,790 --> 01:26:14,800
this is a good application to keep

2248
01:26:18,550 --> 01:26:16,800
getting more of these future of life on

2249
01:26:19,910 --> 01:26:18,560
earth ideas out into the astrobiology

2250
01:26:21,910 --> 01:26:19,920
community

2251
01:26:24,470 --> 01:26:21,920
awesome thank you and i would say you

2252
01:26:26,070 --> 01:26:24,480
know how do we move that from implicit

2253
01:26:29,030 --> 01:26:26,080
beliefs about the future of

2254
01:26:31,030 --> 01:26:29,040
civilizations to explicit beliefs about

2255
01:26:34,070 --> 01:26:31,040
the future of civilizations how can we

2256
01:26:37,830 --> 01:26:34,080
use methodologies like perhaps

2257
01:26:40,629 --> 01:26:37,840
michaels and cats to move us forward

2258
01:26:44,149 --> 01:26:40,639
into being clear about what information

2259
01:26:46,629 --> 01:26:44,159
is driving our predictions i know carlos

2260
01:26:48,709 --> 01:26:46,639
had a question i i mean i have a thought

2261
01:26:51,350 --> 01:26:48,719
on that which actually uh gets the

2262
01:26:53,270 --> 01:26:51,360
question that i had um so you you

2263
01:26:55,430 --> 01:26:53,280
brought up social a little while ago

2264
01:26:57,830 --> 01:26:55,440
last social not this one but the one in

2265
01:27:01,990 --> 01:26:57,840
2020 there was a a

2266
01:27:04,070 --> 01:27:02,000
speech by um robert kennedy iii who was

2267
01:27:06,149 --> 01:27:04,080
not that robert kennedy but he was

2268
01:27:08,870 --> 01:27:06,159
talking about um

2269
01:27:11,110 --> 01:27:08,880
the kinds of drives that it would take

2270
01:27:12,950 --> 01:27:11,120
to get a spacecraft

2271
01:27:15,030 --> 01:27:12,960
uh out of the solar system and the

2272
01:27:16,470 --> 01:27:15,040
amount of energy in the the the fusion

2273
01:27:19,270 --> 01:27:16,480
reactions that you would need and

2274
01:27:21,750 --> 01:27:19,280
apparently the limiting factor is boron

2275
01:27:23,750 --> 01:27:21,760
which i you know you'll have to go to

2276
01:27:25,990 --> 01:27:23,760
that paper for the the evidence on it

2277
01:27:28,950 --> 01:27:26,000
but but it turns out we are running out

2278
01:27:30,149 --> 01:27:28,960
of boron on this planet within this

2279
01:27:31,270 --> 01:27:30,159
generation

2280
01:27:35,270 --> 01:27:31,280
so

2281
01:27:36,709 --> 01:27:35,280
maybe

2282
01:27:39,189 --> 01:27:36,719
we won't be able to take the vast

2283
01:27:40,709 --> 01:27:39,199
majority of bodies uh

2284
01:27:42,470 --> 01:27:40,719
out of this uh

2285
01:27:44,629 --> 01:27:42,480
this solar system but we might be able

2286
01:27:47,910 --> 01:27:44,639
to send technology that that might be

2287
01:27:47,920 --> 01:27:53,590
any last words from uh lynn or rocco

2288
01:27:57,030 --> 01:27:55,189
i definitely want to thank you for

2289
01:27:59,270 --> 01:27:57,040
having this panel and for having this

2290
01:28:02,070 --> 01:27:59,280
session because it's something again i

2291
01:28:03,990 --> 01:28:02,080
feel passionate that that it should

2292
01:28:05,669 --> 01:28:04,000
well it is in many ways the most

2293
01:28:08,390 --> 01:28:05,679
important part about astrobiology

2294
01:28:11,030 --> 01:28:08,400
because it's us living forward and i i

2295
01:28:13,189 --> 01:28:11,040
regret for not having mentioned the near

2296
01:28:15,189 --> 01:28:13,199
future and the potential for using

2297
01:28:18,310 --> 01:28:15,199
synthetic biology to help getting us off

2298
01:28:19,590 --> 01:28:18,320
planet but that being said um again

2299
01:28:21,110 --> 01:28:19,600
thank you for running this because i

2300
01:28:23,189 --> 01:28:21,120
think it's brought up a lot of issues

2301
01:28:24,310 --> 01:28:23,199
that that people should be aware of in

2302
01:28:26,950 --> 01:28:24,320
this community

2303
01:28:30,790 --> 01:28:29,030
one last comment and that is

2304
01:28:32,790 --> 01:28:30,800
i just want to reiterate that i think

2305
01:28:34,629 --> 01:28:32,800
that there have been few publications in

2306
01:28:36,470 --> 01:28:34,639
the area of the future of life

2307
01:28:39,270 --> 01:28:36,480
especially the future of life on earth

2308
01:28:42,470 --> 01:28:39,280
and where it's going and what we may do

2309
01:28:43,830 --> 01:28:42,480
to study it and as the editor-in-chief

2310
01:28:45,910 --> 01:28:43,840
of the international journal of

2311
01:28:48,870 --> 01:28:45,920
astrobiology i'm going to make a plug

2312
01:28:50,149 --> 01:28:48,880
for the journal and also a sales pitch

2313
01:28:52,390 --> 01:28:50,159
saying that

2314
01:28:54,709 --> 01:28:52,400
those of you in the audience or those of

2315
01:28:56,390 --> 01:28:54,719
you who know other people out there who

2316
01:28:58,709 --> 01:28:56,400
are interested in this field who would

2317
01:29:01,590 --> 01:28:58,719
like to write an opinion piece

2318
01:29:02,390 --> 01:29:01,600
or a review or even something that has

2319
01:29:03,430 --> 01:29:02,400
some

2320
01:29:07,590 --> 01:29:03,440
basic

2321
01:29:09,590 --> 01:29:07,600
research in it and data or models uh

2322
01:29:11,590 --> 01:29:09,600
please come and talk to me because those

2323
01:29:14,550 --> 01:29:11,600
are the kinds of papers i think that

2324
01:29:17,189 --> 01:29:14,560
spell the future for astrobiology and i

2325
01:29:19,350 --> 01:29:17,199
would like the journal to be part of it

2326
01:29:20,310 --> 01:29:19,360
so i welcome you to come and talk to me

2327
01:29:22,149 --> 01:29:20,320
please

2328
01:29:26,390 --> 01:29:22,159
thank you

2329
01:29:28,390 --> 01:29:26,400
the people joining us uh online and

2330
01:29:30,790 --> 01:29:28,400
thank you for coming hopefully we will